The resolution heavily relies on a specific third-party tool (xtracker) and includes nuanced edge cases like 'deleted posts up for ~5 minutes' and 'replies recorded on the main feed'. Potential tracker outages or missed posts create moderate resolution risks.

Predicting the precise tweet count of a specific national leader within a given week is a highly niche and novelty market, essentially ignored outside the prediction market ecosystem.

April 9, 2026 - April 12, 2026, the 25-29 range skyrocketed from 1c to 50c, the 20-24 range surged from 4.5c to 53c, and the 35-39 range also jumped from 0.6c to 40c. The reason is that as time passed, updates to tracker data caused drastic market reassessments and capital rotations among adjacent brackets regarding the expected final tweet count. April 8, 2026 - April 11, 2026, prices for the 15-19, 20-24, and 25-29 brackets surged significantly (e.g., 20-24 jumped from 30c to 53.5c), while high-frequency brackets like 55+ collapsed. The reason is that as time progressed, the actual posting rate stabilized, leading the market to discard previous expectations of a high-frequency burst and concentrate funds into mid-low brackets consistent with the current steady pace. April 9, 2026 - April 10, 2026, the 55-59 range surged wildly from 0.2c to 47.7c, the 35-39 range from 0.65c to 40.2c, and the 30-34 range from 2c to 33.5c. The reason is likely a sudden burst of tweets from Khamenei's account or a major jump in tracker data, causing a drastic upward revision in market expectations and panic buying across mid-high frequency brackets. April 7, 2026 - April 9, 2026, the Yes price for the 20-24 range plummeted from 43.5c to 8c, the 25-29 range plummeted from 44.5c to 8c, the 5-9 range peaked at 45.5c before falling to 20.5c, while the 60+ range surged from 4.35c to 20.5c. This occurred because market expectations for posting frequency became highly polarized; earlier mid-high frequency expectations were falsified, and funds shifted to bet on lower-frequency ranges (5-19) as well as hedging against extreme high-frequency bursts (60+). April 6, 2026 - April 7, 2026, the Yes price for the 10-14 range surged from 15c to 36.5c, the 20-24 range from 15.5c to 28.5c, the 25-29 range from 20.5c to 30.5c, and the 30-34 range from 22c to 32c. Conversely, the 5-9, 45-49, 50-54, and 55-59 ranges all plummeted. This reflected a sharp downward revision in market expectations, as initial posting rates did not meet high-frequency hopes, causing rapid liquidations of high-frequency bets in favor of mid-to-low ranges. April 5, 2026 - April 6, 2026, the Yes price for the 50-54 range surged from 17.05c to 32.65c, and the 55-59 range from 3c to 30.15c. This may have been due to a burst of multiple tweets at a specific moment, causing brief market expectations of an extremely high total, which was later quickly falsified.