All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
<20
YesNo
20-39
YesNo
40-59
YesNo
200+
YesNo
120-139
YesNo
140-159
YesNo
160-179
YesNo
180-199
YesNo
60-79
YesNo
80-99
YesNo
100-119
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.17 17:27 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Given Khamenei's death on Feb 28, 2026, and subsequent account dormancy, the probability of the account posting more than 20 times between March 17-24 is negligible (limited to rare official obituaries). The current market price for '<20' (73.5c) is severely lagging and fails to fully reflect the fundamental fact of the account holder's demise; the true probability approaches 100%.
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Exotics
This is a moderately exotic market. While predicting the tweet volume of political figures (like Trump or Musk) has become more common in prediction markets, betting on the exact tweet count of Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei for a specific week remains a niche novelty. It is less about broad political outcomes and more about speculating on the operational rhythm of his social media team.
Movers
March 14, 2026 - March 15, 2026, prices for high-volume options crashed significantly; for example, '20-39' dropped from 41.5c to 14.5c, and '40-59' fell from 41c to 3.25c, while '<20' surged from 51.5c to 77.5c. The reason is that market liquidity finally began repricing the reality of Khamenei's death and account dormancy, causing a mass exodus from high-frequency options into the lowest bracket.
March 11, 2026 - March 13, 2026, there were no violent price moves despite the fundamental shift (Khamenei's death on Feb 28), reflecting stale liquidity or information lag at that time.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. The reality (Khamenei is deceased) dictates a 100% probability for the '<20' post count, yet the prediction market currently prices this at only ~73.5%. This indicates that ~26.5% of the capital is irrationally betting on a dormant account suddenly resuming high-frequency activity, showing extreme market inefficiency.
