All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Mallorca
YesNo
Getafe
YesNo
Espanyol
YesNo
Villarreal
YesNo
Atletico Madrid
YesNo
Real Sociedad
YesNo
Valencia
YesNo
Celta Vigo
YesNo
Alaves
YesNo
Girona
YesNo
Rayo Vallecano
YesNo
Athletic Bilbao
YesNo
Osasuna
YesNo
Sevilla
YesNo
Elche
YesNo
Betis
YesNo
Barcelona
YesNo
Real Madrid
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.16 02:15 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
As of March 16, 2026, with approximately 28 rounds played, the La Liga top 4 race is nearly settled. Barcelona (~70 pts) and Real Madrid (~66 pts) are clear leaders. Atletico Madrid (~57 pts) and Villarreal (~55 pts) hold the 3rd and 4th spots. The 5th placed team, Real Betis (~44 pts), trails the top 4 by a massive 11-point margin with only ~10 games remaining, requiring a miraculous run to bridge the gap. Other teams like Celta Vigo and Real Sociedad are 14+ points behind, making their chances mathematically negligible. However, the market exhibits severe mispricing, assigning absurd probabilities (10-15%) to relegation-threatened or mid-table teams (Alaves, Rayo Vallecano, Getafe), defying all mathematical logic and football fundamentals.
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Arbitrage|Direct Arb
Arbitrage Plan:
Buy 'No' on Alaves
Plan Description:
This is an extremely rare 'free money' opportunity. Alaves is currently 17th in La Liga (~27 pts), trailing 4th-placed Villarreal (~55 pts) by 28 points. With only 10 matches remaining (max 30 pts available), Alaves finishing in the top 4 is virtually mathematically impossible. Yet, the market prices 'Alaves Yes' at 15.6c, meaning 'No' is available at 84.4c. Buying 'No' is a virtually risk-free trade with a very high annualized yield.Sign up to view more information
Arbitrage: 15¢
|Annualized yield: 89.9%
Movers
March 13, 2026 - March 14, 2026, Rayo Vallecano's price spiked from 3.1c to 18.35c, before retracing to 10.2c on March 15. This extreme volatility has no fundamental basis (the team is mid-table with no chance of top 4) and is likely caused by a fat-finger error in an illiquid market or manipulation targeting low-volume options.
March 05, 2026 - March 08, 2026, Celta Vigo's price crashed from 48.5c to 8.75c, driven by a sharp rational correction. The option had been irrationally pumped to nearly 50%, and the collapse reflects a return to reality based on their mid-table standing.
March 06, 2026 - March 08, 2026, Betis's price rebounded from 13.75c to 28.7c, as the market re-evaluated them as the only legitimate challenger for a top 4 spot, correcting a previous oversold condition.
Divergence
There is a severe divergence between the market and reality. Mainstream sports data models (e.g., Opta, Flashscore) indicate that outside of Real Madrid, Barcelona, Atletico Madrid, and Villarreal, the probability of any other team finishing top 4 is extremely low (Betis <10%, others <1%). However, Polymarket pricing implies incredibly high probabilities for Alaves (15%), Rayo (10%), and Getafe (10%). This suggests significant irrational capital or severe liquidity pricing inefficiencies within the prediction market.
