All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Kylian Mbappe
YesNo
Lamine Yamal
YesNo
Vedat Muriqi
YesNo
Robert Lewandowski
YesNo
Raphinha
YesNo
Ferran Torres
YesNo
Marcus Rashford
YesNo
Gorka Guruzeta
YesNo
Alexander Sorloth
YesNo
Gonzalo Garcia
YesNo
Alex Baena
YesNo
Iago Aspas
YesNo
Javi Puado
YesNo
Cristhian Stuani
YesNo
Jude Bellingham
YesNo
Vinicius Junior
YesNo
Oihan Sancet
YesNo
Abel Ruiz
YesNo
Antoine Griezmann
YesNo
Mikel Oyarzabal
YesNo
Dodi Lukebakio
YesNo
Broja Iglesias
YesNo
Cyle Larin
YesNo
Daniel Raba
YesNo
Ante Budimir
YesNo
Ayoze Perez
YesNo
Hugo Duro
YesNo
Julian Alvarez
YesNo
Roberto Fernandez
YesNo
Inaki Williams
YesNo
Dani Olmo
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.14 07:19 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
As of March 14, 2026, with approximately 11 matchdays remaining in La Liga, Kylian Mbappe leads the race with 23 goals, holding a 5-goal cushion over runner-up Vedat Muriqi (18 goals) and a 9-goal lead over Lamine Yamal (14 goals). Given Mbappe's consistent scoring rate (~0.85/game) at Real Madrid and his tie-breaker advantage (alphabetical 'Mb' beats 'Mu' and 'Ya'), he effectively holds a 6-goal lead over Muriqi. Muriqi plays for Mallorca, a much lower-scoring team, making it virtually impossible to outscore Mbappe by such a margin in the final stretch. Yamal, trailing by 9 goals, has statistically zero chance. Mbappe's fair value approaches certainty (98c).
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Arbitrage|Low Risk
Arbitrage Plan:
Buy 'No' Lamine Yamal @ 96.4c
Plan Description:
This is a Low Risk Yield opportunity. Lamine Yamal currently trails leader Mbappe by 9 goals with only ~11 games remaining. To win, he would need to outscore Mbappe by nearly 1 goal per game, which is statistically impossible. However, due to Barcelona's large fanbase ('Fanboy Tax'), his 'Yes' price (3.6c) is irrationally inflated, leaving his 'No' price (96.4c) undervalued relative to reality (~99.9c). Buying 'No' offers a ~3.7% absolute return, translating to an annualized yield of ~17.5%.Sign up to view more information
Arbitrage: 3¢
|Annualized yield: 17.5%
Rule Risk
While the core concept is simple, the tie-breaker rule is a major risk factor. If multiple players tie for top scorer, the market resolves based on alphabetical order of the last name. This conflicts with how official awards (Pichichi) might share the honor. Furthermore, defining 'last name' for Spanish/South American players with composite names can be ambiguous and lead to unexpected resolution outcomes.
Movers
From March 10 to March 12, 2026, Kylian Mbappe's price dipped significantly from roughly 77c to a low of 75c before rapidly rebounding to 88c and then 90c+. This volatility (>10c) was likely driven by panic selling over short-term injury rumors or a liquidity void, with the price correcting back to fundamentals as his availability or scoring status was confirmed.
From March 4 to March 5, 2026, Ferran Torres saw an irrational spike from 0.3c to 11.7c following a standout performance (likely a hat-trick), driven by retail speculation, before crashing back down.
Divergence
There is a significant market mispricing. Official statistics show Vedat Muriqi is 2nd in the Golden Boot race with 18 goals, trailing Mbappe (23). However, on Polymarket, Lamine Yamal (3.6c), who is 3rd with only 14 goals, is priced higher than Muriqi (2.7c). The market is clearly biased by Yamal's popularity and 'star power', ignoring the factual reality that Muriqi is 4 goals ahead of Yamal and mathematically closer to the lead.
