[Mandatory Task] Retrieve the latest election news from Bolivian sources (e.g., La Razón, Erbol), visit the Polymarket page for the 'La Paz Governor Election', analyze the order book depth and spread for top candidates like Santos Quispe and Rafael Quispe, and update the assessment of fair value based on recent local polling trends.

AI-powered analysis for: [Mandatory Task] Retrieve the latest election news from Bolivian sources (e.g., La Razón, Erbol), visit the Polymarket page for the 'La Paz Governor Election', analyze the order book depth and spread for top candidates like Santos Quispe and Rafael Quispe, and update the assessment of fair value based on recent local polling trends.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Politics/Polls Comparison] Search for the latest voting intention data from authoritative Bolivian polling firms (e.g., Ciesmori, Diagnosis) regarding the La Paz Governor race, focusing on voter sentiment in El Alto, and compare these figures with current Polymarket odds to identify significant discrepancies.

AI-powered analysis for: [Politics/Polls Comparison] Search for the latest voting intention data from authoritative Bolivian polling firms (e.g., Ciesmori, Diagnosis) regarding the La Paz Governor race, focusing on voter sentiment in El Alto, and compare these figures with current Polymarket odds to identify significant discrepancies.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Rule Pitfall/Risk Premium] Given that resolution relies on the Bolivian TSE with a 'backstop' deadline of December 31st, and considering Bolivia's history of political instability, analyze the risk of election results being contested or delayed indefinitely. Does the current price offer enough risk premium to offset the possibility of a non-resolution?

AI-powered analysis for: [Rule Pitfall/Risk Premium] Given that resolution relies on the Bolivian TSE with a 'backstop' deadline of December 31st, and considering Bolivia's history of political instability, analyze the risk of election results being contested or delayed indefinitely. Does the current price offer enough risk premium to offset the possibility of a non-resolution?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Politics|$7,033 Vol|

3 days 4 hrs

La Paz Governor Election Winner (Bolivia) - AI Odds Analysis

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

Ingvar Ellefsen Dotzauer

YesNo

15.25¢

84.75¢

1¢

99¢

0¢

+14.2¢

Santos Quispe Quispe

YesNo

6.95¢

93.05¢

15¢

85¢

+8¢

0¢

Richard Andrés Gómez

YesNo

8.9¢

91.1¢

1¢

99¢

0¢

+7.9¢

Germán Riveros

YesNo

8.2¢

91.8¢

1¢

99¢

0¢

+7.2¢

René Yahuasi Calamani

YesNo

7.35¢

92.65¢

1¢

99¢

0¢

+6.4¢

Augusto Saturnino Oblitas

YesNo

4.95¢

95.05¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+4.9¢

Demetrio Villca

YesNo

2.85¢

97.15¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+2.8¢

Rafael Quispe Flores

YesNo

3.1¢

96.9¢

1¢

99¢

0¢

+2.1¢

Luis Antonio Revilla

YesNo

58.4¢

41.6¢

60¢

40¢

+1.6¢

0¢

Felix Patzi

YesNo

5.95¢

94.05¢

5¢

95¢

0¢

+0.9¢

Gualberto Cusi

YesNo

0.6¢

99.4¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+0.6¢

Orlando Callisaya

YesNo

0.4¢

99.6¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+0.4¢

Leopoldo Richar Chui

YesNo

0.15¢

99.85¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+0.1¢

Clemente Gutiérrez

YesNo

0.15¢

99.85¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+0.1¢

Fidel Chura

YesNo

0.15¢

99.85¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+0.1¢

AI Insights:

12 hours ago Updated

Fair Value Reasoning:

Although Luis Revilla's price has plummeted from 80c+ to 58c due to the legal risk of disqualification (DQ), he remains the only frontrunner with a realistic path to victory; the market's pricing of this risk as a 'coin flip' (~60%) is relatively reasonable. The market is currently extremely chaotic, exhibiting a massive 'long-tail bubble' where the sum of Yes prices far exceeds 100% (approx. 145%). Speculative capital is rotating through hopeless candidates (e.g., René Yahuasi suddenly pumped from 1c to 22c), whose actual win probability is <1%. Santos Quispe, as the incumbent and potential beneficiary, holds a fair value around 15c. It is consistent to ignore the price noise of all fringe candidates.

Exotics

While a standard election for locals, this is a niche regional political event for a global prediction market audience. Compared to US or European elections, the La Paz Governor race attracts significantly less attention.

Movers

March 17, 2026 - March 18, 2026, René Yahuasi Calamani's price skyrocketed from 1.2c to 21.9c, a classic irrational speculative pump, absorbing capital from previously burst bubbles. March 15, 2026 - March 18, 2026, Luis Antonio Revilla's price dropped continuously from 83.8c to 58.75c as legal uncertainty regarding his qualification intensified closer to election day (March 22), causing panic selling. March 17, 2026 - March 18, 2026, Germán Riveros's price crashed from 23.3c to 9.25c, indicating that the speculative capital from the previous day is rapidly exiting this option. March 16, 2026 - March 17, 2026, Ingvar Ellefsen Dotzauer experienced high volatility swinging from ~20c to ~10c, confirming that market capital is rotating through fringe candidates in a 'pump and dump' fashion.

Divergence

There is a severe divergence between market prices and fundamental mathematics. The sum of all candidates' 'Yes' prices is approximately 145%, implying a mathematically impossible 145% probability of a winner. Furthermore, the win probabilities assigned to fringe candidates like Yahuasi (22%), Ellefsen (16%), and Gómez (10%) are completely detached from Bolivian political reality and polling data, representing typical retail irrational exuberance in prediction markets.

La Paz Governor Election Winner (Bolivia) - AI Odds Analysis

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