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Value
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César Dockweiler
YesNo
Xavier Iturralde
YesNo
Jhonny Plata
YesNo
Óscar Sogliano
YesNo
Carlos Eduardo Palenque
YesNo
Miguel Roca
YesNo
Waldo Albarracín
YesNo
Paul Coca
YesNo
Iván Arias
YesNo
Rodrigo Rivera
YesNo
Alejandro Reyes
YesNo
Pierre Chain
YesNo
AI Insights:
38 minutes ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Although César Dockweiler's price has continued to drop to 69c, the core logic of the 'First-Past-The-Post' system in the La Paz mayoral election remains intact. With 3 days to go, the anti-MAS vote remains critically fragmented among Miguel Roca, Waldo Albarracín, and incumbent Iván Arias. There is no official news of a 'unity candidate' agreement. In this fractured landscape, Dockweiler, with a solid 35%-40% base, has a very high probability of winning. The current market panic represents irrational selling, overestimating the chances of an upset by Miguel Roca (who is rising but lacks time to consolidate). Dockweiler's fair value should remain above 80c.
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Movers
March 15, 2026 - March 18, 2026, César Dockweiler's price plummeted from 81c to 68.5c because, as election day (March 22) approaches, the market is panicking about a potential last-minute opposition consolidation or the rise of a 'dark horse' (like Miguel Roca), leading to a capital flight from the frontrunner.
March 17, 2026 - March 18, 2026, Miguel Roca's price doubled from 5.15c to 10.25c due to speculative capital betting on him emerging as the de facto consensus opposition candidate, despite the persistent structural issue of vote splitting.
March 15, 2026 - March 17, 2026, Alejandro Reyes's price crashed from 13c to 0.35c due to the complete bursting of an early speculative bubble, confirming he has no chance of winning.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. Fundamentals (electoral system and candidate landscape) show the opposition vote is extremely fragmented, which mathematically almost guarantees a victory for the single largest bloc candidate (Dockweiler), implying a >80% win probability. However, the prediction market price (69%) reflects a high 'uncertainty discount' and 'dark horse panic'. Market sentiment is driven by recent social media hype around Miguel Roca rather than objective vote-counting logic.
