All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
JV
YesNo
ZZS
YesNo
NA
YesNo
LPV
YesNo
SV
YesNo
AS
YesNo
S
YesNo
ST!
YesNo
PRO
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.13 01:30 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Market pricing is massively disconnected from the latest March 2026 polling data. According to recent SKDS and LSM figures (late 2025/early 2026), LPV (Latvia First) has surged to ~9.5%, even overtaking JV (New Unity, ~9.3%) for the top spot in some polls. Yet, the market prices JV as the dominant favorite (45.5c) and LPV as a distant second-tier option (15c), severely underestimating LPV's win probability. Furthermore, ZZS (Greens and Farmers Union) polls consistently in the 6-8% range and has historically strong rural mobilization; its market price of 2.65c is criminally undervalued and should be closer to 10c. NA (National Alliance), despite a price correction, remains overpriced at 15c given its collapse to 4th or 5th place in polls (~6.4%). While JV has incumbency advantages, its near-50% implied probability is unsupported by raw data in a 'most seats' market.
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Divergence
There is an extreme divergence. Mainstream polling (e.g., SKDS) indicates that LPV has tied or flipped JV (both polling around 9-10%, with LPV occasionally reaching #1 at 9.5%), suggesting a dead heat (a 50/50 or 40/40 race). However, the prediction market reflects a 'landslide' bias, assigning JV ~45% odds versus only ~15% for LPV. This 3x implied probability gap completely fails to account for LPV's status as the current polling frontrunner. Additionally, ZZS consistently polls in the top 5 but is priced by the market as a fringe party with no chance (<3%).
