[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Given the extremely low trading volume ($2.94) and the proximity of the Le Havre municipal election (March 15, 2026), visit the Polymarket page to check if there is any effective liquidity in the Order Book. Simultaneously, search Google News to confirm the campaign status of incumbent Edouard Philippe to determine if the market dormancy is due to the outcome being a 'foregone conclusion' or a total lack of interest.

AI-powered analysis for: [Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Given the extremely low trading volume ($2.94) and the proximity of the Le Havre municipal election (March 15, 2026), visit the Polymarket page to check if there is any effective liquidity in the Order Book. Simultaneously, search Google News to confirm the campaign status of incumbent Edouard Philippe to determine if the market dormancy is due to the outcome being a 'foregone conclusion' or a total lack of interest.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Category 1: Awareness & Verification] Core News Sourcing: Search major local French media (e.g., Paris-Normandie or Ouest-France) for the latest reports and polling data on 'Le Havre municipales 2026'. Specifically verify the polling gap between Edouard Philippe and his main rival Jean-Paul Lecoq to predict if the election is likely to be decided decisively in the first round (March 15), rendering the second round (March 22) unnecessary.

AI-powered analysis for: [Category 1: Awareness & Verification] Core News Sourcing: Search major local French media (e.g., Paris-Normandie or Ouest-France) for the latest reports and polling data on 'Le Havre municipales 2026'. Specifically verify the polling gap between Edouard Philippe and his main rival Jean-Paul Lecoq to predict if the election is likely to be decided decisively in the first round (March 15), rendering the second round (March 22) unnecessary.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Category 3: Decision & Action] Low Liquidity 'Stink Bid' Strategy: Considering the near-zero market depth, formulate a 'Stink Bid' strategy. Given that the capital lock-up period is only about two weeks, calculate the feasibility and potential ROI of placing low bids for the heavy favorite (Edouard Philippe) or high offers against unlikely candidates, rather than executing market orders (Taker), to capture value from the illiquidity.

AI-powered analysis for: [Category 3: Decision & Action] Low Liquidity 'Stink Bid' Strategy: Considering the near-zero market depth, formulate a 'Stink Bid' strategy. Given that the capital lock-up period is only about two weeks, calculate the feasibility and potential ROI of placing low bids for the heavy favorite (Edouard Philippe) or high offers against unlikely candidates, rather than executing market orders (Taker), to capture value from the illiquidity.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Politics|$104.3k Vol|

3 days 7 hrs

Le Havre Mayoral Election Winner - AI Odds Analysis

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

Edouard Philippe

YesNo

96.95¢

3.05¢

99¢

1¢

+2¢

0¢

Jean-Paul Lecoq

YesNo

2.2¢

97.8¢

1¢

99¢

0¢

+1.2¢

Franck Keller

YesNo

0.15¢

99.85¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+0.1¢

Sophie Zarifian

YesNo

0.05¢

99.95¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

Marie Le Cieux

YesNo

0.05¢

99.95¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

Charlotte Boulogne

YesNo

0.05¢

99.95¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

Magali Cauchois

YesNo

0.05¢

99.95¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

AI Insights:

3 hours ago Updated

Fair Value Reasoning:

The first-round results on March 15, 2026, established a commanding lead for Edouard Philippe (43.76%). The confirmed 'Triangulaire' (three-way runoff) on March 22 with far-right candidate Franck Keller (15.30%) staying in the race is decisive. Keller's presence splits the opposition vote, preventing right-wing consolidation against Philippe. Even if leftist challenger Jean-Paul Lecoq (33.25%) absorbs all minor left-wing votes (approx. 7-8%), his ceiling is around 41%, mathematically insufficient to overcome Philippe's base. Barring an extreme tail risk event, Philippe's re-election is statistically locked.

Sign up to view more information

Arbitrage|Low Risk

Arbitrage Plan:

Buy 'Edouard Philippe' Yes

Plan Description:

While a thin theoretical risk-free arbitrage exists by buying 'Yes' on all candidates (Total cost ~99.6c, profit 0.4c), the more compelling 'Low Risk Yield' opportunity is simply buying Edouard Philippe Yes. The current price of 96.6c implies a 3.4% chance of defeat, which contradicts the political reality of the 'Triangulaire' that locks in his victory. With a fair win probability >99%, this offers a ~3.4% nearly risk-free return over 3.5 days, resulting in a massive annualized yield.

Sign up to view more information

Arbitrage: 3¢

|

Annualized yield: 375%

Movers

March 15, 2026 - March 16, 2026, Edouard Philippe's price surged from ~66c to 98c, while Jean-Paul Lecoq crashed from 32c to 2c. This was driven by the release of first-round results showing Philippe's dominant lead (43.76%) and the confirmation that far-right candidate Keller (15.3%) would advance to the runoff. This 'Triangulaire' configuration mathematically blocks Lecoq (33.25%) from consolidating enough opposition votes to overtake the incumbent.

Le Havre Mayoral Election Winner - AI Odds Analysis

AI Insights:

Support

Frequently Asked Questions

The All-in-One AI Copilot for Prediction Markets

Markets

AI Insights

Tools & subscriptions

Community

Policies & security

Partner