All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
$5B
YesNo
$4B
YesNo
$6B
YesNo
$3B
YesNo
$1B
YesNo
$7B
YesNo
$2B
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.16 02:29 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The market is currently in a state of extreme irrationality, with price monotonicity completely broken. The price of the $4B option (12c) is absurdly lower than the $5B option (49c), which is a logical impossibility (if market cap exceeds $5B, it must exceed $4B). Based on Ledger's historical valuation (~$1.5B) and the warming crypto market, a $3B-$4B range is a reasonable IPO target. The $5B option (49c) is severely overvalued, while $4B is erroneously sold off. Fair value should follow a smooth declining curve; we anchor $4B around 35c and $5B around 20c.
Sign up to view more information
Rule Risk
Definition ambiguity risk exists. The rule strictly defines market cap as 'outstanding shares multiplied by closing price', which is the standard secondary market definition. However, IPO valuations cited in media often refer to 'Fully Diluted Valuation' (including option pools). For tech firms, the fully diluted figure can be 10-20% higher than the market cap based on outstanding shares. If Ledger claims a $4B valuation (fully diluted) but the strict market cap is only $3.5B, the market would resolve to 'No', contradicting public headlines.
Hedging
COIN
BTC
HOOD
Ledger's valuation is highly positively correlated with broader crypto market sentiment, specifically Bitcoin (BTC) prices. If BTC crashes pre-IPO (as mentioned in search results dropping from $126k to $70k), Ledger's hardware wallet sales projections and valuation would suffer a structural shock. Coinbase (COIN), as a public crypto infrastructure peer, serves as a direct pricing anchor; its multiple compression would drag down Ledger.
Movers
March 13, 2026 - March 15, 2026, the price of the $4B option crashed from 49c to 12c, a 75% drop, directly causing the current severe price inversion (falling below the $5B option). Meanwhile, the $1B option rebounded from 70.9c to 81.4c, indicating increased market confidence in the IPO taking place, but a breakdown in the pricing mechanism for specific valuation ranges.
February 23, 2026 - February 24, 2026, the price of the $4B option surged from 26c to 51.5c, reflecting an overheated market reaction to high valuation targets, briefly exceeding the $3B option.
February 9, 2026 - February 10, 2026, the price of the $4B option rose from 21c to 37c, a delayed reaction to rumors of Ledger seeking a $4 billion valuation.
Divergence
The primary divergence is a fracture in internal market logic rather than just a disagreement with external consensus. Market pricing suggests the probability of a $5B cap (49%) is far higher than a $4B cap (12%), which is mathematically and financially impossible. External consensus places Ledger's valuation between $1.5B-$3B; the crash in the $4B option likely reflects a return to rationality, but the resilience of the $5B option appears absurd.
