All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Le Havre
YesNo
Paris FC
YesNo
Metz
YesNo
Brest
YesNo
Lorient
YesNo
Angers
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.04 00:32 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Market pricing indicates Metz has effectively locked in a relegation spot (95.5c), consistent with the trend of rival prices crashing in late February. With all other options trading below 7c and a total implied probability of only ~115% (far below the 200-300% expected for standard Ligue 1 relegation), the market strongly suggests Angers, Paris FC, and Le Havre have built a safety buffer, or that the primary relegation risk has shifted to teams not listed in this specific market (survivorship bias due to incomplete list). Fair value maintains the status quo, confirming Metz's dire situation and the relative safety of the others.
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Divergence
Significant structural divergence exists. Ligue 1 typically has 2 direct relegation spots and 1 playoff spot, implying the sum of relegation probabilities across the league should be nearly 200-300%. However, the total probability of all visible options (Metz, Angers, Paris FC, etc.) sums to only ~115%. This implies either that the market believes the other relegation spots will be filled by teams not currently listed (incomplete list), or that the market holds an extremely optimistic view on the safety of teams like Angers and Le Havre, potentially exceeding mainstream media expectations for a volatile relegation battle.
