All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Hanwha Life Esports
YesNo
Gen.G Esports
YesNo
FEARX
YesNo
Dplus
YesNo
KT Rolster
YesNo
T1
YesNo
DRX
YesNo
Nongshim RedForce
YesNo
Freecs
YesNo
BRION
YesNo
AI Insights:
17 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
With Gen.G winning the LCK Cup (pre-season), their early dominance is established, but a >50% implied probability is slightly aggressive given the long season and meta volatility; Fair Value is set at 48c. The biggest discrepancy is Hanwha Life Esports (HLE). Their 10th place finish in the LCK Cup has caused extreme market pessimism (6.5c). However, given the 'superteam' roster of Zeus, Zeka, and Viper, this early struggle is likely growing pains. History shows superteams often peak in Summer; their true championship equity is far higher than 6.5%, warranting a FV of 14c. FEARX, as the LCK Cup runner-up, is undervalued at 4.2c, proving they can contend with top teams; FV is adjusted to 6c. T1's 4th place is typical for their slow starts, making ~19c a fair valuation.
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Arbitrage|Low Risk
Arbitrage Plan:
Buy 'Yes' on all options (Buy the Field)
Plan Description:
The sum of all 'Yes' prices is approximately 89.5c. Buying 'Yes' on every team guarantees a payout of 100c as long as a winner is declared, locking in a ~10.5c risk-free profit. The only risk is the season being canceled (resolving to 'Other'), which is highly unlikely absent a global crisis.Sign up to view more information
Arbitrage: 10¢
|Annualized yield: 13.9%
Divergence
The main divergence is on Hanwha Life Esports (HLE). The market has priced them as a bottom-tier team (6.5%) due to their last-place finish (10th) in the LCK Cup, which is an overreaction. Mainstream experts and media continue to recognize the elite talent ceiling of their roster (Zeus/Zeka/Viper), viewing them as strong contenders for the season championship rather than a bottom-dwelling team.
