All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Karen Bass
YesNo
Spencer Pratt
YesNo
Nithya Raman
YesNo
Gina Viola
YesNo
Rick Caruso
YesNo
Adam Miller
YesNo
Rae Huang
YesNo
Austin Beutner
YesNo
Lindsey Horvath
YesNo
Monica Rodriguez
YesNo
Asaad Alnajjar
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.13 04:22 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Despite Rick Caruso, Austin Beutner, and Lindsey Horvath confirming their withdrawal back in February, dead money remains in the market. While Spencer Pratt polled second (10%) in the March 11 Emerson poll, his chances of winning a general election in deep-blue Los Angeles as a Republican reality star are near zero; his price (9c) is significantly overvalued. The race is effectively a binary contest between incumbent Bass and progressive Raman. Although Bass is polling at only 20% with abysmal approval ratings (24%), she retains incumbency and centrist support. Raman, despite polling at 9%, is the sole viable progressive alternative likely to consolidate the 50% undecided bloc for a runoff spot. Fair value should concentrate on Bass (58c) and Raman (38c), combining for ~96%.
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Arbitrage|Direct Arb
Arbitrage Plan:
Buy 'No' on Rick Caruso
Plan Description:
Rick Caruso officially announced he is not running on February 5, 2026, making this a certain outcome. Yet, 'Yes' orders remain at ~2c. Buying 'No' at ~98c yields a ~2c profit over 80 days, representing a risk-free annualized yield of ~9%. Similar risk-free opportunities exist for Austin Beutner and Lindsey Horvath.Sign up to view more information
Arbitrage: 1¢
|Annualized yield: 9.1%
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. The March 11 Emerson/Inside California Politics poll shows: Bass 20%, Pratt 10%, Raman 9%, Undecided 51%. The prediction market prices represent a vastly different reality: Bass 42%, Raman 35.5%, Pratt 9%.
The divergence centers on Nithya Raman. While polls place her a distant third (9%), the market prices her as a co-favorite (35.5%). This implies traders strongly believe: 1. The massive undecided block (50%+) will break heavily toward the progressive Raman; 2. Spencer Pratt's second-place polling is a mirage with no path to victory. The market is 'correcting' the raw polling data, betting heavily on a binary Bass vs. Raman contest.
