All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Jamie Davis Jr.
YesNo
Nick Albares
YesNo
Gary Crockett
YesNo
Tracie Burke
YesNo
Jabarie Walker
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.13 06:40 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The market is currently in a state of extreme irrationality, with the sum of all 'Yes' prices reaching 117.6 cents, indicating a significant premium. This is primarily driven by the sudden entry (or specific pricing) of Gary Crockett and Nick Albares as strong contenders, causing a rapid fragmentation of capital. However, the prices of the former frontrunner (Davis) and long-shot options (Burke/Walker) have not yet corrected sufficiently to reflect this new competitive field. While Jamie Davis Jr. remains the establishment pick (DSCC ties), his lead has been severely diluted (dropping from 60c+ to 50c). Gary Crockett shows strong short-term momentum (surging 11.5c in one day) and warrants a higher premium weight. Burke and Walker, despite low absolute prices, are effectively non-viable in this emerging three-way race, making their current ~3c pricing overvalued.
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Rule Risk
There is a significant rule trap stemming from the conflict between Louisiana's 'Majority Vote' requirement and the market's expiration date. 1. **System Change**: Louisiana recently switched from a jungle primary to a closed party primary system. The primary is on May 16, 2026, but state law requires a candidate to win >50% of the vote. If no one does, a runoff is mandated for June 27. 2. **Timing Risk**: The market expires exactly on May 16. With three active candidates splitting the vote, a runoff is highly probable. If no candidate secures a majority on May 16, there is legally no 'Winner' on that date. Unless the market rules explicitly allow for extension to the June runoff, this creates a high risk of a dispute or an 'Other' resolution.
Exotics
This is a niche political market. While a 'Senate Primary' is a standard political event, the Democratic Primary in Louisiana—a deep red state—is largely irrelevant to the national balance of power. It serves effectively as a 'participation trophy' race, making it a low-interest event for the general public.
Movers
From March 12 to March 13, 2026, Gary Crockett's price surged from 25c to 36.5c, while the former frontrunner Jamie Davis Jr. dropped from 61.5c to 50.5c over three days (March 10-13). The reason is a fundamental shift in market structure; the emergence (or data integration) of Crockett and Nick Albares as viable contenders diluted Davis's win probability, shifting the market from a 'one-horse race' to a competitive 'three-way contest'.
From Feb 9 to Feb 11, 2026, Jabarie Walker's price dropped from 45c to 35.5c, while Tracie Burke rose from 28c to 33c. This suggested capital was rotating away from the initial 'NOLA machine' thesis for Walker and flowing towards the rising momentum of the activist candidate Burke.
Divergence
There is a significant 'mathematical divergence'. The market is currently pricing the total probability at 117.6%, violating the logic of a single-winner event (sum should be 100%). This typically occurs when new strong options (like Gary Crockett) enter the market, and existing holders (of Jamie Davis Jr.) are reluctant to sell at a loss, causing a lag in price correction. This divergence suggests either Davis is severely overvalued, or the surge in Crockett is a false signal.
