Explain the resolution rules for this market in simple terms: how is the 'Absolute Daily Min' temperature published by the Hong Kong Observatory evaluated to one decimal place, and what happens if the official data is later revised?

AI-powered analysis for: Explain the resolution rules for this market in simple terms: how is the 'Absolute Daily Min' temperature published by the Hong Kong Observatory evaluated to one decimal place, and what happens if the official data is later revised?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Based on historical climate data from the Hong Kong Observatory over the past 10 years, what is the occurrence frequency and statistical probability of the lowest temperature on April 25 falling into each specified option range (e.g., 21°C, 22°C, or 15°C and below)?

AI-powered analysis for: Based on historical climate data from the Hong Kong Observatory over the past 10 years, what is the occurrence frequency and statistical probability of the lowest temperature on April 25 falling into each specified option range (e.g., 21°C, 22°C, or 15°C and below)?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Considering the latest local weather forecasts for Hong Kong on April 25, what core indicators (e.g., predicted temperatures dropping below a specific degree) should trigger a stop-loss limit for current positions in the event of a sudden cold front or unexpected rain?

AI-powered analysis for: Considering the latest local weather forecasts for Hong Kong on April 25, what core indicators (e.g., predicted temperatures dropping below a specific degree) should trigger a stop-loss limit for current positions in the event of a sudden cold front or unexpected rain?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on April 25?

Weather|$10.9k Vol|

10 hrs 38 mins

Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on April 25? - AI Found +62.1¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 04.23 07:30

Top Undervalued

+62.1¢

20°C(No)

+34.7¢

21°C(Yes)

+12.7¢

22°C(Yes)

Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on April 25? AI analysis: • +62.1¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:

According to the latest forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and multiple weather sources, a col...

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All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

20°C

YesNo

97.05¢

2.95¢

35¢

65¢

0¢

+62.1¢

21°C

YesNo

0.25¢

99.75¢

35¢

65¢

+34.7¢

0¢

Expand to view all 11 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

Divergence

There is a clear divergence. The prediction market currently assigns higher Yes prices to 22°C, 23°C, and 24°C (all above 0.27), whereas recent mainstream weather forecasts (including warnings from the Hong Kong Observatory) explicitly state that a cold front will bring temperatures down to around 20°C in urban areas from April 24 to the morning of April 25. The market has not fully priced in this latest cooling warning, undervaluing the probabilities of 20°C and 21°C.