What is the historical frequency of the lowest temperature in London falling between 6°C and 11°C on May 13th over the past 10 years?

AI-powered analysis for: What is the historical frequency of the lowest temperature in London falling between 6°C and 11°C on May 13th over the past 10 years?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

How frequently is the Wunderground London City Airport (EGLC) station data updated, and is there any risk of data outages delaying the market resolution?

AI-powered analysis for: How frequently is the Wunderground London City Airport (EGLC) station data updated, and is there any risk of data outages delaying the market resolution?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Are there any specific weather fronts, cloud cover, or wind patterns forecasted for London on May 13 that could significantly drop or raise the minimum temperature?

AI-powered analysis for: Are there any specific weather fronts, cloud cover, or wind patterns forecasted for London on May 13 that could significantly drop or raise the minimum temperature?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

How exactly is the lowest temperature on May 13 determined and resolved using the Wunderground London City Airport data? (Explain Like I'm 5)

AI-powered analysis for: How exactly is the lowest temperature on May 13 determined and resolved using the Wunderground London City Airport data? (Explain Like I'm 5). Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

How have past Polymarket weather and temperature markets handled disputes over station data revisions or rounding rules?

AI-powered analysis for: How have past Polymarket weather and temperature markets handled disputes over station data revisions or rounding rules?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Based on the current odds, what is the intuitive probability of London's lowest temperature dropping to 4°C or below on May 13?

AI-powered analysis for: Based on the current odds, what is the intuitive probability of London's lowest temperature dropping to 4°C or below on May 13?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

What are the top 3 meteorological arguments against the lowest temperature in London staying above 10°C on May 13?

AI-powered analysis for: What are the top 3 meteorological arguments against the lowest temperature in London staying above 10°C on May 13?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Is predicting the exact lowest temperature in London a few days out largely random, or do current short-term meteorological models offer high predictability?

AI-powered analysis for: Is predicting the exact lowest temperature in London a few days out largely random, or do current short-term meteorological models offer high predictability?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

What upcoming meteorological updates or hourly forecasts could cause sudden volatility across these temperature brackets within the next 24 hours?

AI-powered analysis for: What upcoming meteorological updates or hourly forecasts could cause sudden volatility across these temperature brackets within the next 24 hours?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Given the low total volume of $91, what is the slippage risk for a $500 trade entering the '8°C' temperature option?

AI-powered analysis for: Given the low total volume of $91, what is the slippage risk for a $500 trade entering the '8°C' temperature option?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Which temperature options benefit the most from time decay as we progress through May 13 without any sudden temperature drops?

AI-powered analysis for: Which temperature options benefit the most from time decay as we progress through May 13 without any sudden temperature drops?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

What are the main disagreements among community traders regarding the Wunderground EGLC forecast versus other mainstream weather models for May 13?

AI-powered analysis for: What are the main disagreements among community traders regarding the Wunderground EGLC forecast versus other mainstream weather models for May 13?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Is there any current overhype or chasing risk in the options for extreme temperatures (like '12°C or higher') based on recent UK weather anomalies?

AI-powered analysis for: Is there any current overhype or chasing risk in the options for extreme temperatures (like '12°C or higher') based on recent UK weather anomalies?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

If an unexpected cold front hits London, what is the logical bottom support price projection for the '5°C' or '6°C' options?

AI-powered analysis for: If an unexpected cold front hits London, what is the logical bottom support price projection for the '5°C' or '6°C' options?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Does the current price discount for the '9°C' option adequately compensate for the rule risks associated with Wunderground rounding to whole degrees?

AI-powered analysis for: Does the current price discount for the '9°C' option adequately compensate for the rule risks associated with Wunderground rounding to whole degrees?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Given the low liquidity, what is a suggested limit order price for the '7°C' option that minimizes slippage while waiting for weather model consensus?

AI-powered analysis for: Given the low liquidity, what is a suggested limit order price for the '7°C' option that minimizes slippage while waiting for weather model consensus?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

At what forecasted temperature drop on the Met Office should a trader immediately trigger a stop-loss for their '11°C' Yes shares?

AI-powered analysis for: At what forecasted temperature drop on the Met Office should a trader immediately trigger a stop-loss for their '11°C' Yes shares?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

How can a trader optimally place extremely low 'stink bids' on the unlikely '3°C' or '2°C or below' options to catch panic selling during a sudden temp drop?

AI-powered analysis for: How can a trader optimally place extremely low 'stink bids' on the unlikely '3°C' or '2°C or below' options to catch panic selling during a sudden temp drop?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Assuming a $100 investment on the '10°C' option, what is the calculated actual ROI after deducting estimated Gas fees and deposit/withdrawal slippage?

AI-powered analysis for: Assuming a $100 investment on the '10°C' option, what is the calculated actual ROI after deducting estimated Gas fees and deposit/withdrawal slippage?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Based on your confidence level in the current short-term weather forecast for London, what is the recommended Kelly Criterion portfolio allocation for the '8°C' option?

AI-powered analysis for: Based on your confidence level in the current short-term weather forecast for London, what is the recommended Kelly Criterion portfolio allocation for the '8°C' option?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Lowest temperature in London on May 13?

Weather|$11.2k Vol|

0 s

Lowest temperature in London on May 13? - AI Mispricing Alert

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 05.12 08:57

Top Undervalued

+38.5¢

9°C(No)

+32¢

7°C(Yes)

+21.5¢

8°C(No)

Lowest temperature in London on May 13? AI analysis: Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:

According to mainstream weather forecasts (e.g., Met Office, AccuWeather), the lowest temperature at...

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All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

9°C

YesNo

48.5¢

51.5¢

10¢

90¢

0¢

+38.5¢

7°C

YesNo

8¢

92¢

40¢

60¢

+32¢

0¢

Expand to view all 8 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

Exotics

Moderate novelty. While weather predictions are a standard niche on prediction platforms, betting on the exact daily low temperature of a specific city is still relatively unconventional and niche for mainstream audiences.

Movers

Between May 11 and May 12, 2026, the price of '12°C or higher' plummeted from 39¢ to less than 1¢, while '9°C' rose from 22¢ to 36.5¢. The prices of '5°C' and '6°C' also dropped significantly. This is due to meteorological forecasts becoming more precise and indicating cooler weather as the resolution date approaches, eliminating the possibility of anomalous high temperatures.

Divergence

The market currently assigns the highest probability to '9°C' (36.5%), yet the latest meteorological forecasts (Met Office, AccuWeather, etc.) predict the minimum temperature at London City Airport on May 13 to be between 6°C and 7.8°C. The market pricing is skewed towards higher temperatures, showing a clear divergence from the latest professional weather forecasts.