While the title mentions Seoul, the rules explicitly state that the resolution relies on data from the Incheon Intl Airport station. Incheon is coastal, and its temperatures often differ from downtown Seoul, which could easily mislead traders who do not read the fine print.

April 25, 2026 - April 26, 2026, the price of the 18°C option surged from 14.5c to 42.5c, while the 20°C option experienced heavy volatility, dropping from 14.5c to 8c before spiking to 23c and falling back to 14c. The 19°C option rose from 17c to 28.5c before dropping to 13.5c. This was caused by the release of updated short-term weather models as the resolution date neared, prompting traders to reallocate their positions around specific temperature ranges.

April 25, 2026 - April 27, 2026, the price of '60-61°F' surged from 18c to 46.5c, and '62-63°F' rose from 7c to 23.5c, as updated weather forecasts closer to the resolution date indicated warmer expected highs. April 25, 2026 - April 26, 2026, the price of '58-59°F' initially spiked from 12.5c to 36.5c before retreating to 24c, reflecting the dynamic intraday adjustments and volatility in short-term meteorological models.

April 25, 2026 - April 26, 2026: The price of the 29°C option surged from 19.5c to 45c, and the 30°C option rose from 14c to 32c. This was driven by updated meteorological models forecasting slightly higher temperatures as the resolution date approached, concentrating market positions in higher temperature brackets.

April 25, 2026 - April 27, 2026, the price of the 18°C option surged from 13c to 29.5c, driven by updated short-term weather models causing the market to price in higher temperature expectations. April 26, 2026 - April 27, 2026, the price of the 16°C option dropped from 33.5c to 24.5c, as market capital shifted towards higher temperature brackets like 17°C and 18°C.

There is a significant divergence. The latest official forecast from Environment Canada predicts a high of 15°C, whereas the market is currently heavily pricing in 17°C and 18°C (with a combined probability of over 60%). This divergence likely stems from traders relying on other commercial weather models (like AccuWeather or The Weather Network) that suggest afternoon temperature spikes could exceed the more conservative official daily high forecast.

Predicting the highest daily temperature of a specific city on a particular date is highly niche. Aside from locals or meteorology enthusiasts, the general public rarely considers this, making it quite a novel and exotic market.

April 25, 2026 - April 27, 2026: The price of the 17°C option steadily rose from 19.5c to 39.5c, and the '18°C or higher' option increased from 8c to 21c, while the 15°C option plummeted from a peak of 19c to 7.5c. This is because, as the resolution day approaches, weather forecasts confirmed that the high temperature would be slightly warmer than previously expected during the cold wave, increasing the probability of outcomes 16°C, 17°C, or higher. April 25, 2026 - April 26, 2026: The price of the 16°C option briefly surged from 31.5c to 46c before falling back to 34.5c, reflecting continuous minor adjustments in forecast models between 16°C and 17°C.