May 3, 2026 - May 4, 2026: The price of the '23°C or higher' option surged significantly from 31.5c to 82.5c, while the '21°C' option plummeted from 22.5c to 1.5c. This was driven by converging weather models as the resolution date approached, which significantly revised the forecasted high temperature upwards, causing capital to quickly consolidate into the highest temperature bracket.

This is a highly specific regional weather market. While weather derivatives are not uncommon in traditional finance, betting on the exact daily high temperature of Wellington, New Zealand remains a somewhat niche and novelty topic for mainstream retail prediction market users.

May 4, 2026 - May 5, 2026, the price of the 16°C option surged from around 50.5c to 99.85c, while the 17°C option plummeted from 29c to 0.1c. The reason is that as local New Zealand time reached the evening of May 5, real-time temperature data from the Wellington airport confirmed the daily high peaked at 16°C. May 3, 2026 - May 4, 2026, the price of the 16°C option steadily climbed from around 40.5c to a peak of 67.5c (currently at 64c), while the 17°C option's price plummeted from a high of 33c to 7.5c. The reason is that as the expiration date approaches, weather forecast uncertainty has significantly decreased. Latest meteorological models have largely ruled out the possibility of temperatures reaching 17°C, causing funds to quickly consolidate into the 15°C and 16°C brackets.

May 4, 2026 - May 4, 2026, the price of '20°C' surged from 16.5c to 93c, while '21°C' plummeted from 76.5c to 0.2c. The reason is that as the date approached, updated meteorological data from the Hong Kong Observatory and other agencies clearly showed a stronger-than-expected temperature drop from the cold front, locking the expected minimum temperature at around 20°C and causing a dramatic reversal in market consensus. May 3, 2026 - May 4, 2026, the price of '21°C' surged from 22c to 76.5c, as the market initially anticipated the cold front's cooling effect to be limited, expecting the minimum temperature to stay around 21°C.

Between 06:33 and 09:48 on May 4, 2026, the price of 62-63°F surged from 1.15c to 24.75c, as some morning weather models (like AccuWeather) unexpectedly revised the next day's overnight low up to 63°F. Between 10:53 and 13:03 on May 4, 2026, the price of 60-61°F spiked from 16.5c to 41.5c, driven by blended meteorological platforms suggesting 60-61°F as a more reasonable median estimate, triggering a buy-in before retracing as new data emerged. Between 02:13 and 06:33 on May 4, 2026, the price of 56-57°F jumped from 6c to 27c, followed by heavy volatility (dropping to 8.5c before climbing back to 30c later), reflecting instability in short-term forecast updates and model disagreements over the penetration of a cool front.

Between 2026-05-03 and 2026-05-04, the Yes price for the 21°C option surged from 23c to a peak of 51.5c before settling at 45.5c. During the same period, the 20°C Yes price also rallied from 23c to 41.5c before retracing. This was caused by intraday adjustments in weather forecasting models as the resolution date approached, causing the expected high to fluctuate between 20°C and 21°C and triggering speculative trading.