Lowest temperature in NYC on May 12?
Weather|$11.9k Vol|
time5 hrs 11 mins

Lowest temperature in NYC on May 12? - AI Found +19¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 05.11 11:57
Top Undervalued
+19¢
46-47°F(No)
+10¢
50-51°F(No)
+7.8¢
52-53°F(Yes)

Lowest temperature in NYC on May 12? AI analysis: • +19¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:
According to the latest weather forecasts, the low temperature at New York's LaGuardia Airport on Ma...
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Highest temperature in Toronto on May 13?
Weather|$11.0k Vol|
time1 days 5 hrs

Highest temperature in Toronto on May 13?

Top Undervalued
+12.5¢
14°C(Yes)
+8¢
17°C(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on the latest weather forecasts for Toronto Pearson Airport (CYYZ) on May 13, the high tempera...
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Exotics
Betting on the daily high temperature of a specific city is a niche but standard topic in prediction markets. While weather derivatives exist professionally, the general public rarely considers it as a betting subject in daily life.
AI Analysis
How reliable is the Wunderground data source for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport (CYYZ), and what are the specific rules and potential pitfalls regarding the whole-degree Celsius recording for the May 13 resolution?
Highest temperature in London on May 13?
Weather|$24.5k Vol|
time1 days 5 hrs

Highest temperature in London on May 13?

Top Undervalued
+18.5¢
15°C(Yes)
+16.5¢
13°C(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
According to the latest weather forecasts, the highest temperature for London City Airport (EGLC) on...
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Divergence
The market's current pricing leans towards 13°C-14°C (combined probability of nearly 60%). However, the latest forecast from Wunderground, the resolution source, suggests high temperatures reaching 60°F to 61°F (approx. 15.5°C to 16.1°C). This divergence may be due to some traders not yet adjusting their expectations based on the latest meteorological models, creating a slight discrepancy between market prices and mainstream forecasts.
AI Analysis
How will the rule of recording temperatures to whole degrees Celsius on Wunderground for the London City Airport station specifically affect the resolution of this market?
Highest temperature in Seoul on May 13?
Weather|$34.8k Vol|
time1 days 5 hrs

Highest temperature in Seoul on May 13?

Top Undervalued
+8¢
22°C(Yes)
+7.5¢
20°C(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
According to the latest weather forecasts, the high temperature in Incheon (including Incheon Intern...
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Rule Risk
The title asks for the temperature in 'Seoul,' but the rules specify the resolution source as the 'Incheon Intl Airport Station.' Incheon is coastal and adjacent to Seoul, so its temperature may differ from central Seoul, presenting a potential trap. Additionally, the market strictly relies on specific historical data from Wunderground with whole-degree Celsius precision.
AI Analysis
What is the current forecasted high temperature for Incheon Airport (RKSI) on May 13 according to Wunderground, and how exactly will the final data be rounded and recorded based on the resolution rules?
Highest temperature in Paris on May 13?
Weather|$10.5k Vol|
time1 days 5 hrs

Highest temperature in Paris on May 13?

Top Undervalued
+5¢
14°C(No)
+3¢
16°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on the latest weather forecast data, the highest temperature in Paris (Le Bourget Airport) on ...
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AI Analysis
Explain the resolution rules of this weather market like I'm 5 (ELI5): detail the data adoption standards for the Wunderground Paris-Le Bourget (LFPB) station, the finalization time for May 13 data, and how the 'whole degrees Celsius' precision rule determines the exact win/loss conditions at borderline temperatures.
Highest temperature in Seattle on May 13?
Weather|$30.5k Vol|
time1 days 5 hrs

Highest temperature in Seattle on May 13?

Top Undervalued
+22¢
56-57°F(No)
+13.3¢
58-59°F(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Recent weather forecasts indicate rain and cooling in Seattle on May 13, with highs expected between...
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Divergence
There is a divergence between market pricing and older weather forecasts. While NWS predicted a high of 73°F a few days ago, updated models project around 59°F due to rain. The market has priced in the cooldown, though residual pricing remains for higher temperature tails.
AI Analysis
What is the exact process for Wunderground to finalize the highest temperature data for the Seattle-Tacoma Airport (KSEA) station on May 13, and are there any risks of resolution delays due to the data source?
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
46-47°F
YesNo
33¢
67¢
14¢
86¢
0¢
+19¢
50-51°F
YesNo
28¢
72¢
18¢
82¢
0¢
+10¢

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⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
Movers
On May 11, 2026, the price of the 44-45°F option experienced wild swings, dropping from 19.5c at 06:53 to 3.6c at 09:03, then bouncing back to 19c by 11:13, as conflicting morning model updates shifted near-term expectations. From the night of May 10 to the early hours of May 11, 2026, the price of the 46-47°F option plummeted from 24.5c to 6.5c, because some major forecast outlets adjusted their low temperature predictions upwards to above 50°F, reducing the perceived probability of lower ranges.

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