Check the reliability and update status of the Wunderground history page for the Incheon Intl Airport Station (RKSI), and explain if there are any potential dispute risks regarding the rule that resolves the temperature to whole degrees Celsius.

AI-powered analysis for: Check the reliability and update status of the Wunderground history page for the Incheon Intl Airport Station (RKSI), and explain if there are any potential dispute risks regarding the rule that resolves the temperature to whole degrees Celsius.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Based on recent meteorological forecast models for Seoul and historical weather patterns for this time of year, analyze the predictability of the lowest temperature at Incheon Airport falling into specific ranges like '12°C' or '19°C or higher' on May 11.

AI-powered analysis for: Based on recent meteorological forecast models for Seoul and historical weather patterns for this time of year, analyze the predictability of the lowest temperature at Incheon Airport falling into specific ranges like '12°C' or '19°C or higher' on May 11.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Given the extremely low trading volume (20.0) of this temperature market, how should I strategize placing 'stink bids' on extreme temperature options (like '9°C or below' or '18°C') to catch potential wicks caused by illiquidity?

AI-powered analysis for: Given the extremely low trading volume (20.0) of this temperature market, how should I strategize placing 'stink bids' on extreme temperature options (like '9°C or below' or '18°C') to catch potential wicks caused by illiquidity?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Lowest temperature in Seoul on May 11?

Weather|$10.5k Vol|

11 hrs 7 mins

Lowest temperature in Seoul on May 11? - AI Found +59.1¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 05.10 13:54

Top Undervalued

+59.1¢

13°C(No)

+26¢

12°C(Yes)

+17.5¢

11°C(Yes)

Lowest temperature in Seoul on May 11? AI analysis: • +59.1¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:

Based on the latest trading data and short-term weather forecast models, the lowest temperature at I...

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All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

13°C

YesNo

95.1¢

4.9¢

36¢

64¢

0¢

+59.1¢

12°C

YesNo

5¢

95¢

31¢

69¢

+26¢

0¢

Expand to view all 5 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

Rule Risk

The title asks for the lowest temperature in Seoul, but the resolution rules explicitly specify the Incheon Intl Airport Station (RKSI). Since Incheon is coastal and some distance from central Seoul, temperatures often differ. Traders who only read the title and use Seoul forecasts might be misled. Additionally, the rules emphasize resolving to whole degrees Celsius.

Movers

From May 9 to May 10, 2026, the prices for both 12°C and 13°C surged significantly from under 10c to over 30c. This was driven by the release of updated short-term weather models (e.g., NWS/GFS) as the expiration date neared, ruling out cooler scenarios and locking the lowest temperature forecast into the 12-13°C range. From May 9 to May 10, 2026, the prices of the 10°C and 11°C options experienced sharp volatility. The 11°C option dropped from 20.5c to 4.5c before rebounding, while 10°C also spiked and retreated rapidly. This volatility was caused by minor intraday adjustments in meteorological models, which triggered short-term speculative trading.