How exactly will the lowest temperature for May 8 be determined using the Wunderground Incheon Airport (RKSI) data, and how are the whole degree Celsius rounding rules applied for resolution?

AI-powered analysis for: How exactly will the lowest temperature for May 8 be determined using the Wunderground Incheon Airport (RKSI) data, and how are the whole degree Celsius rounding rules applied for resolution?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Looking at historical weather data for early May in Incheon, which lowest temperature bracket has the highest actual occurrence frequency? With only 48 hours left until resolution, what is the usual margin of error for weather forecast models?

AI-powered analysis for: Looking at historical weather data for early May in Incheon, which lowest temperature bracket has the highest actual occurrence frequency? With only 48 hours left until resolution, what is the usual margin of error for weather forecast models?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

What specific changes in the latest weather forecasts over the next 48 hours (e.g., sudden cold fronts or precipitation chances) should trigger an immediate stop-loss or portfolio adjustment across the temperature brackets?

AI-powered analysis for: What specific changes in the latest weather forecasts over the next 48 hours (e.g., sudden cold fronts or precipitation chances) should trigger an immediate stop-loss or portfolio adjustment across the temperature brackets?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Lowest temperature in Seoul on May 8?

Weather|$12.3k Vol|

19 hrs 23 mins

Lowest temperature in Seoul on May 8? - AI Mispricing Alert

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 1 hours ago

Top Undervalued

+6¢

11°C(Yes)

+5¢

13°C(Yes)

+2.5¢

12°C(Yes)

Lowest temperature in Seoul on May 8? AI analysis: • +6¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:

The latest weather forecasts (including the Aviation Meteorological Office of Korea and global weath...

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All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

11°C

YesNo

32¢

68¢

38¢

62¢

+6¢

0¢

13°C

YesNo

0.05¢

99.95¢

5¢

95¢

+5¢

0¢

Expand to view all 11 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

Rule Risk

The title asks for the lowest temperature in 'Seoul', but the rules explicitly state the resolution source is the 'Incheon Intl Airport Station' (RKSI). Incheon Airport is located on an island and is subject to marine climate influences, which often result in significantly different temperatures compared to central Seoul. Traders relying solely on the title and central Seoul weather forecasts could easily be misled, making this a major resolution trap.

Movers

May 6, 2026 - May 7, 2026, the price of the 9°C option plummeted from 21c to around 2c as updated forecasts closer to the resolution date consolidated the low at 11°C, virtually ruling out a colder night. May 6, 2026 - May 7, 2026, the 10°C option dropped from 32.5c to 14.5c, reflecting weather models tightening their consensus towards 11°C rather than 10°C. May 6, 2026 - May 7, 2026, the 11°C option surged from 19c to 35c, driven by official meteorological forecasts (e.g., AMO) explicitly stating an expected low of 11°C for May 8.