Lowest temperature in Shanghai on April 25?
Weather|$17.9k Vol|
time12 hrs 50 mins

Lowest temperature in Shanghai on April 25? - AI Found +64¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 04.23 07:31
Top Undervalued
+64¢
12°C(No)
+34¢
11°C(Yes)
+10¢
13°C(Yes)

Lowest temperature in Shanghai on April 25? AI analysis: • +64¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:
According to the latest weather forecasts, the lowest temperature for Shanghai Pudong International ...
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Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 25?
Weather|$15.3k Vol|
time12 hrs 50 mins

Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 25?

Top Undervalued
+20.5¢
18°C(No)
+13.2¢
16°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
According to the latest weather forecast data, the high temperature in Warsaw on April 25 is expecte...
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Exotics
While weather forecasting is a daily routine, betting on the precise maximum temperature of a specific city on a given day is a relatively niche market. It appeals mainly to weather enthusiasts and short-term data arbitrageurs, giving it moderate novelty.
AI Analysis
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
12°C
YesNo
98.95¢
1.05¢
35¢
65¢
+64¢
11°C
YesNo
99¢
35¢
65¢
+34¢

Expand to view all 6 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
Divergence
The sum of the 'Yes' prices across all temperature options in the current prediction market significantly exceeds 100 cents (close to 200 cents). Moreover, the 'Yes' prices for higher temperature ranges like 13°C, 14°C, and 15°C are disproportionately high. This diverges noticeably from mainstream meteorological forecasts which predict lows of 11-12°C. The likely cause is poor market liquidity and slow price adjustments by market makers, resulting in wide spreads and a distorted sum of implied probabilities.

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