May 3, 2026 - May 5, 2026, the price of 26°C surged from 15.5c to 43.5c, as updated weather models increasingly confirmed the high temperature would reach or exceed 25°C. May 3, 2026 - May 4, 2026, the price of 25°C rose from 30.5c to a peak of 52c before settling at 43.5c, due to forecast models fluctuating between 25°C and 26°C. May 3, 2026 - May 5, 2026, the price of 24°C plummeted from 26.5c to 4c, as latest forecasts indicated the highest temperature would be significantly above this range.

May 4, 2026 - May 5, 2026, the price of the 28°C option surged from 42c to 56c, while the 27°C option plunged from 46c to 17.5c. This was driven by updated meteorological data closer to the resolution time, which indicated a higher probability of temperatures reaching 28°C (approx. 82°F), shifting the market consensus away from 27°C. May 3, 2026 - May 4, 2026, the price of the 26°C option dropped from 18.5c to around 3c, as forecasted highs were adjusted upwards, significantly reducing the likelihood of a 26°C resolution.

Between May 4, 2026 and May 5, 2026, the price for the 31°C option surged from 19c to 51.5c, as approaching the resolution date, real-time temperature data indicated a high probability of hitting the 31°C mark. Between May 4, 2026 and May 5, 2026, the 32°C option's price spiked from 8c to 26c, driven by faster-than-expected temperature rises leading to increased market bets on a higher outcome. Between May 3, 2026 and May 4, 2026, the 28°C option plummeted from 22c down to 1c, as climbing temperatures practically ruled out this lower bracket. Between May 3, 2026 and May 5, 2026, the 29°C option crashed from 27c to 5c, similarly due to the actual weather turning out much hotter than the previous long-term forecast. On May 4, 2026, the 30°C option experienced massive volatility, peaking at 39.5c before dropping to around 15c, likely due to the tug-of-war between shifting forecasts and real-time intraday readings.

There is a notable divergence. Conventional mainstream weather forecasts (like AccuWeather and Wunderground's multi-day forecasts) previously predicted the high for Chengdu on May 5 to be between 28°C and 29°C. However, since today is the resolution day, prediction market traders are heavily betting on 31°C and above, relying on real-time temperature climbs and short-term monitoring. This highlights the gap between static long-term forecast models and traders leveraging immediate meteorological data.

Predicting the exact highest temperature of a specific city on a given day is a relatively niche 'weather derivative' type of market. It deviates from mainstream hot topics but has a clear scientific basis, so it is not wildly bizarre.

May 3, 2026 - May 5, 2026, the price of the '33°C or below' option surged from 69c to 99c. The reason is that short-term weather forecasts confirmed rain and a high of only around 31°C for May 5, making the market confident in this outcome. May 3, 2026 - May 4, 2026, the price of the '34°C' option plummeted from 17c to less than 1c, as closer-term forecasts adjusted the expected temperature downwards, eliminating the likelihood of reaching 34°C.

Predicting the exact high temperature of a specific city on a given day is a standard meteorological topic in prediction markets, though it remains a niche and peripheral subject for the vast majority of non-locals.

May 3, 2026 - May 5, 2026, the price of '13°C or higher' surged from 22c to 56.5c before retracing to around 39.5c. Meanwhile, '12°C' rose from 28.5c to 43.5c, and '11°C' plummeted from 33.5c to 12.5c. These volatile movements were driven by revisions in weather forecasting models regarding the passing cold front as the expiration date approached, concentrating market expectations towards 12°C and above.