May 9, 2026 - May 10, 2026, the price of the '25°C or higher' option surged from 12.5c to 46c, while the '23°C' option dropped from 36c to 18.5c. The reason is that as the resolution date approaches, updated meteorological forecasting models have revised the expected maximum temperature for Haneda Airport upward, indicating a high likelihood of reaching or exceeding 25°C.

May 7, 2026 - May 10, 2026, due to a lack of liquidity, the Yes prices for some teams (like Pacers, Hawks) dropped from around 49c to single digits or rebounded. The reason remains the violent price swings caused by random trades in an extremely illiquid market, rather than fundamental changes. May 7, 2026 - May 8, 2026, prices for teams like the Denver Nuggets, Detroit Pistons, Houston Rockets, and Los Angeles Lakers dropped from around 49c to 35c before rebounding. This is due to volatile price swings caused by random trades in an extremely illiquid market, rather than any fundamental changes.

May 7, 2026 - May 8, 2026, the 95+ option's price plummeted from 74c to 10.5c, as the influx of new reviews pushed the freshness score below 95% making it mathematically impossible to bounce back before settlement. May 4, 2026 - May 5, 2026, the Yes prices for all tiers (e.g., 65+, 75+, 85+) experienced massive surges. For instance, 85+ skyrocketed from 48.5c to over 90c. The reason is the release of the film's early Rotten Tomatoes score after the embargo lifted, landing at a stellar 94%-97%, vastly boosting market confidence.

Predicting the highest temperature of a specific city on a given day is a niche but standard weather market. For the general public, it is not a daily concern unless they have a specific interest, but it is not completely bizarre.

On May 10, 2026, the price of the 21°C option surged from 14c to 27.5c, while 22°C dropped from 39c to 21c briefly before recovering, and 23°C fell from 33.5c to 23c. The reason is that as the resolution date approaches, updated meteorological models slightly adjusted the expected temperature downwards, reducing the likelihood of higher temperatures. On May 9, 2026, the price of the 19°C option plummeted from 12.5c to 1.5c, the 24°C option fell from 18.5c to 7c, and the 25°C option dropped from 13.5c to 1.2c. This was due to increased forecast accuracy ruling out these extreme temperature scenarios.

Betting on the specific daily high temperature of a single city is a niche, novelty market typically used for daily platform engagement rather than serious, macro-level forecasting.

Between May 9 and May 10, 2026, the price of the 22°C option surged from 25.5c to 43.5c before settling at 32c, while the 24°C option dropped from 20c to 10.5c. This occurred because updated short-term weather models narrowed the forecast range, reducing the likelihood of higher temperatures (24°C and above) and causing capital to concentrate on the 22°C and 23°C options.