Lowest temperature in Tokyo on May 12?
Weather|$11.9k Vol|
time14 hrs 27 mins

Lowest temperature in Tokyo on May 12? - AI Found +73.2¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 9 hours ago
Top Undervalued
+73.2¢
16°C(No)
+3.1¢
15°C(Yes)
+0.6¢
14°C(Yes)

Lowest temperature in Tokyo on May 12? AI analysis: • +73.2¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on the latest weather forecasts, the lowest temperature for Tokyo Haneda Airport on May 12 is ...
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Real-time High Yield Opportunities

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Highest temperature in Manila on May 12?
Weather|$12.5k Vol|
time14 hrs 27 mins

Highest temperature in Manila on May 12?

Top Undervalued
+1.6¢
38°C or higher(Yes)
+1.5¢
35°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
As the resolution date (May 12) approaches, the latest meteorological forecast data has become more ...
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Exotics
This is a typical niche weather prediction market. While weather forecasts are common in daily life, outside of specific traders and local residents, the general public does not usually try to predict the exact highest temperature in Manila on a given day. It is a relatively niche prediction topic.
Movers
Between May 10, 2026, and May 11, 2026, the price of 36°C surged from 29c to 50c, while the price of 37°C dropped from 47c to 23.5c. This was caused by the latest short-term weather forecasting models increasingly pointing to a peak of exactly 36°C as the expiration time approaches, reducing the probability of reaching 37°C or higher. No other options have experienced a price movement of more than 10 cents in the past 3 days.
AI Analysis
How exactly should the resolution rules and data precision from the Wunderground RPLL station be interpreted for the highest temperature in Manila on May 12?
Peak US National Debt before 2027?
Politics|$10.5k Vol|
time233 days 2 hrs

Peak US National Debt before 2027?

Top Undervalued
+23.5¢
$41 trillion(No)
+4.5¢
$42 trillion(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
As of early May 2026, the US national debt continues to climb, approaching $39 trillion. With nearly...
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AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest odds for the $39T, $40T, and $41T brackets on Polymarket, check the real-time "Total Public Debt Outstanding" on TreasuryDirect.gov, and calculate the actual gap to the target figures to assess if the market pricing is overly optimistic or pessimistic.
American Hockey League: Winner
Sports|$10.2k Vol|
time49 days 6 hrs

American Hockey League: Winner

Top Undervalued
+46.5¢
Chicago Wolves(No)
+46.5¢
Colorado Eagles(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
There are 32 teams competing in the AHL. The current market prices are severely distorted and lack l...
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Divergence
The market odds deviate absurdly from reality. The probability of any single team winning is incorrectly priced at around 49%, which is fundamentally impossible in a highly competitive 32-team sports league. This divergence is entirely driven by the prediction market's poor liquidity and pricing failure, rather than any reflection of actual sporting fundamentals.
AI Analysis
Explain the resolution rules for this AHL Champion prediction market in ELI5 terms: what happens if the tournament is postponed beyond June 30, 2026?
Will the RSF capture Khartoum by June 30?
Geopolitics|$20.1k Vol|
time49 days 2 hrs

Will the RSF capture Khartoum by June 30?

Top Undervalued
+3.2¢
(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
With roughly two months left until the resolution date, the probability of the RSF capturing Khartou...
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Exotics
This is a specific military outcome question regarding a regional geopolitical conflict. While standard for those following the Sudan crisis, it is somewhat niche for the general public compared to major elections or economic data.
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Combining the latest updates on the Sudan civil war (specifically the physical distance of the RSF from Khartoum International Airport), examine the order book depth on Polymarket. Given the low liquidity of $16k and the June 30, 2026 deadline, does the current bid-ask spread imply an excessive risk premium for the 'fog of war'?
2025-2026 FA Cup Winner
Soccer|$450.1k Vol|
time5 days 2 hrs

2025-2026 FA Cup Winner

Top Undervalued
+0.5¢
Manchester City(No)
Arbitrage Opportunity
1¢
Arbitrage
73.7%
Annualized yield
Arbitrage|Direct Arb
Arbitrage Plan: Buy one share of Manchester City No (28.5c) and one share of Chelsea No (70.5c) simultaneously. Plan Description: Currently, Manchester City No is priced at 0.285 and Chelsea No at 0.705. The combined cost is 0.99 ...
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Undervalued Options Insights:
With less than a week left until the FA Cup Final, Manchester City and Chelsea are the final contend...
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AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Retrieve the latest FA Cup 2025-26 odds and bracket status, analyze the order book for liquidity gaps between favorites (e.g., Man City) and dark horses (e.g., Wrexham), and assess the fair value based on current tournament progression.
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
16°C
YesNo
95.15¢
4.85¢
22¢
78¢
0¢
+73.2¢
15°C
YesNo
3.9¢
96.1¢
7¢
93¢
+3.1¢
0¢

Expand to view all 5 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
Movers
May 10, 2026 - May 11, 2026: The price of 17°C surged from around 22.5c to 39.5c, and the price of 18°C also surged from around 22c to 38.5c. This is because, as the expiration date approaches, the latest meteorological models revised the expected low temperature upward to the 17-18°C range. May 10, 2026 - May 11, 2026: The price of 16°C fluctuated, dropping to 7c before bouncing back to 22c, reflecting market repricing due to minor tweaks in the forecast.

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