Retrieve the latest data for the "MA-08 Democratic Primary Winner" event on Polymarket, and given the extremely low trading volume of ~$49, analyze the order book depth and bid-ask spread to reassess the fair value and slippage risk, taking into account the incumbency advantage of Stephen Lynch.

AI-powered analysis for: Retrieve the latest data for the "MA-08 Democratic Primary Winner" event on Polymarket, and given the extremely low trading volume of ~$49, analyze the order book depth and bid-ask spread to reassess the fair value and slippage risk, taking into account the incumbency advantage of Stephen Lynch.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Search for the latest news regarding Rep. Stephen Lynch's 2026 re-election plans to confirm if he has officially filed for candidacy or if there are rumors of retirement, as this is the core fundamental factor determining whether challengers like Patrick Roath or Andrew Zylberfink have any realistic path to victory.

AI-powered analysis for: Search for the latest news regarding Rep. Stephen Lynch's 2026 re-election plans to confirm if he has officially filed for candidacy or if there are rumors of retirement, as this is the core fundamental factor determining whether challengers like Patrick Roath or Andrew Zylberfink have any realistic path to victory.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Calculate the opportunity cost of capital by comparing the potential ROI of betting on the likely winner (e.g., Stephen Lynch) and locking funds until the September 1, 2026 resolution date, against the risk-free yield of holding stablecoins or treasury bills over the same period, to determine if the current odds offer value given the two-year lock-up.

AI-powered analysis for: Calculate the opportunity cost of capital by comparing the potential ROI of betting on the likely winner (e.g., Stephen Lynch) and locking funds until the September 1, 2026 resolution date, against the risk-free yield of holding stablecoins or treasury bills over the same period, to determine if the current odds offer value given the two-year lock-up.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

MA-08 Democratic Primary Winner

Politics|$2,295 Vol|

120 days 23 hrs

MA-08 Democratic Primary Winner - AI Found +19¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 04.19 09:01

Top Undervalued

+19¢

Stephen Lynch(Yes)

+16.3¢

Andrew Zylberfink(No)

+0.5¢

Patrick Roath(No)

MA-08 Democratic Primary Winner AI analysis: • +19¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:

Incumbent Stephen Lynch holds the advantage of incumbency and a significant war chest, but faces a s...

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All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

Stephen Lynch

YesNo

46¢

54¢

65¢

35¢

+19¢

0¢

Andrew Zylberfink

YesNo

16.35¢

83.65¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+16.3¢

Expand to view all 3 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

Movers

April 17, 2026 - April 18, 2026, Stephen Lynch's price surged from 48c to 58.5c, as the market corrected previous panic selling and realigned with his fundamental incumbent advantages. March 13, 2026 - March 16, 2026, Stephen Lynch's price crashed from 75c to 51c, while Patrick Roath surged from 23.5c to 43.5c and Andrew Zylberfink jumped from 7.75c to 20.6c. The reason is likely emerging rumors in mid-March regarding incumbent Lynch's health or political future, causing capital to flee in panic towards all challengers, including the withdrawn Zylberfink, resulting in a drastic market realignment.

Divergence

There is a severe pricing divergence in the prediction market. According to Ballotpedia and mainstream sources, Andrew Zylberfink is off the primary ballot and has withdrawn from the race, yet his Yes price remains absurdly high at 37.9c. This discrepancy is entirely driven by uninformed capital or market inefficiencies resulting in a broken pricing structure.