From April 20 to April 21, 2026, the Yes price of the $60M option surged from 28c to 60c, and the $200M option surged from 16.5c to 49c, while the $20M option plummeted from 63.5c to 47.5c. This was caused by extreme illiquidity leading to irrational trading and severe monotonicity pricing errors. From April 3 to April 6, 2026, the $10M option price surged from 56c to 76.5c, indicating a strong recovery in market confidence that the project will successfully launch a token and meet the minimum FDV threshold. From April 4 to April 6, 2026, the $60M option price experienced severe volatility between 55.5c and 70c, eventually settling at 61.5c, reflecting severe divergence and illiquidity in the mid-valuation range. On March 5, 2026, the $20M option experienced significant volatility, spiking from 57c to 72c before retracing, indicating liquidity instability. From February 9 to February 10, 2026, the $60M option crashed from 47c to 26c, reflecting a collapse in confidence for mid-to-high valuations.

The current market prices show an extreme divergence from basic probability logic. The market is assigning a higher probability to a higher market cap threshold (e.g., $60M at 60c) than to a lower one (e.g., $40M at 44c), which is mathematically impossible. This divergence indicates that the prediction market is currently highly inefficient and dominated by uncoordinated, illogical trades.