All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Janet Mills
YesNo
Graham Platner
YesNo
Chellie Pingree
YesNo
Troy Jackson
YesNo
Dan Kleban
YesNo
Jared Golden
YesNo
Jordan Wood
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.17 23:39 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Although previous UNH polling established Graham Platner's lead, the market has seen significant mean regression in the last 24 hours. Janet Mills' price rebounded quickly from 25c to 29.5c, suggesting the market is correcting its overly pessimistic pricing of the incumbent Governor. While Platner remains dominant due to the polling narrative, the gap is narrowing as traders factor in Mills' incumbency advantage and the time remaining until the primary. We adjust Platner's fair value to 70c and raise Mills to 30c to reflect the current sentiment of 'frontrunner retracement and incumbent rebound'.
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Arbitrage|Direct Arb
Arbitrage Plan:
Buy 'No Graham Platner' (0.29) + Buy 'No Janet Mills' (0.705).
Plan Description:
A minor technical arbitrage opportunity exists. The total cost to buy 'No' on both leading candidates is 99.5 cents (0.29 + 0.705). If one of them wins, the payout is 100 cents, yielding a 0.5 cent profit. If neither wins (e.g., Jared Golden wins), the payout is 200 cents. This is risk-free, but the annualized yield is very low (~1.36%) and likely negated by transaction fees.Sign up to view more information
Arbitrage: 0.5¢
|Annualized yield: 1.36%
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. Mainstream political wisdom typically assigns a dominant advantage to an incumbent Governor (Janet Mills) in a primary, especially against a lesser-known challenger (Graham Platner). However, the prediction market prices Platner (71c) far above Mills (30c), driven by specific polling data (e.g., UNH polls). The market's implied probability of an 'upset' is much higher than what traditional political analysis based on conventional campaign logic would suggest.
