[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest data for the "Predicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair" event on Polymarket. Analyze the bid-ask spread and liquidity depth for top options like Christopher Waller and Kevin Hassett. Combine this with current macro narratives to assess the fair value and arbitrage space considering the dual conditions of "Candidate Confirmation" and "Rate cut to 2.5%".

AI-powered analysis for: [Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest data for the "Predicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair" event on Polymarket. Analyze the bid-ask spread and liquidity depth for top options like Christopher Waller and Kevin Hassett. Combine this with current macro narratives to assess the fair value and arbitrage space considering the dual conditions of "Candidate Confirmation" and "Rate cut to 2.5%".. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Mainstream Divergence] Traditional Finance/CME Probability Anchoring: Search the CME FedWatch Tool for the dot plot or futures pricing regarding 2026 interest rates. Obtain the implied probability from traditional finance markets for the "rate reaching 2.5% or lower" condition. Compare this with the "≤ 2.5%" components in the Polymarket options to determine if the prediction market is underestimating or overestimating the likelihood of aggressive rate cuts.

AI-powered analysis for: [Mainstream Divergence] Traditional Finance/CME Probability Anchoring: Search the CME FedWatch Tool for the dot plot or futures pricing regarding 2026 interest rates. Obtain the implied probability from traditional finance markets for the "rate reaching 2.5% or lower" condition. Compare this with the "≤ 2.5%" components in the Polymarket options to determine if the prediction market is underestimating or overestimating the likelihood of aggressive rate cuts.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Capital Lock-up] Long-term Opportunity Cost Calculation: Given that this event may not resolve until December 31, 2026, calculate the opportunity cost of locking capital for approximately 2 years (referencing US Treasury yields or DeFi stablecoin APY of ~4-5%). Analyze whether the potential ROI of current odds (e.g., Kevin Hassett & Rate ≤ 2.5%), after deducting this ~10% risk-free yield loss, still possesses a positive Expected Value (EV).

AI-powered analysis for: [Capital Lock-up] Long-term Opportunity Cost Calculation: Given that this event may not resolve until December 31, 2026, calculate the opportunity cost of locking capital for approximately 2 years (referencing US Treasury yields or DeFi stablecoin APY of ~4-5%). Analyze whether the potential ROI of current odds (e.g., Kevin Hassett & Rate ≤ 2.5%), after deducting this ~10% risk-free yield loss, still possesses a positive Expected Value (EV).. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Predicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair

Parlays|$109.6k Vol|

242 days 0 hrs

Predicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair - AI Found +62.5¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 04.28 13:01

Top Undervalued

+62.5¢

Kevin Warsh & Rate > 2.5%(No)

+11.1¢

Other(No)

+7.2¢

Kevin Hassett & Rate ≤ 2.5%(No)

Predicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair AI analysis: • +62.5¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:

The market continues to view Kevin Warsh as the most likely next Fed Chair, with his combined option...

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All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

Kevin Warsh & Rate > 2.5%

YesNo

76.5¢

23.5¢

14¢

86¢

0¢

+62.5¢

Other

YesNo

14.1¢

85.9¢

3¢

97¢

0¢

+11.1¢

Expand to view all 9 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

Hedging

Gold

DXY

S&P 500

US 10Y Yield

This event is directly linked to the anchor of global asset pricing—the Fed interest rate path. If the outcome leans towards rates dropping to 2.5% (implying a deep recession or extreme dovish pivot in the current context), it would cause US Treasury Yields to crash significantly and likely boost Gold. The policy bias of the chosen Chair (e.g., Warsh vs. Hassett) would also directly impact S&P 500 valuation models and the trajectory of the Dollar Index (DXY).