All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Kevin Warsh & Rate > 2.5%
YesNo
Kevin Warsh & Rate ≤ 2.5%
YesNo
Rick Rieder & Rate ≤ 2.5%
YesNo
Kevin Hassett & Rate ≤ 2.5%
YesNo
Rick Rieder & Rate > 2.5%
YesNo
Other
YesNo
Kevin Hassett & Rate > 2.5%
YesNo
Christopher Waller & Rate > 2.5%
YesNo
Christopher Waller & Rate ≤ 2.5%
YesNo
AI Insights:
11 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The market has firmly established Kevin Warsh as the presumptive next Fed Chair (sum of Warsh options ~88%), significantly reducing political nomination uncertainty. The remaining variable is macroeconomic. Given the absence of immediate financial crisis signals and potential sticky inflation, the likelihood of the Fed funds rate lower bound dropping below 2.5% (implying severe recession or emergency cuts) by end-2026 remains low. Thus, 'Warsh & Rate > 2.5%' (76 cents) is fairly priced as the baseline scenario. 'Warsh & Rate ≤ 2.5%' (11-12 cents) holds value as a recession hedge but has softened slightly. The 'Other' option remains at 5 cents as tail-risk protection against nomination failure or a surprise candidate.
Sign up to view more information
Hedging
US 10Y Yield
DXY
Gold
S&P 500
This event is directly linked to the anchor of global asset pricing—the Fed interest rate path. If the outcome leans towards rates dropping to 2.5% (implying a deep recession or extreme dovish pivot in the current context), it would cause US Treasury Yields to crash significantly and likely boost Gold. The policy bias of the chosen Chair (e.g., Warsh vs. Hassett) would also directly impact S&P 500 valuation models and the trajectory of the Dollar Index (DXY).
