All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
1.15–1.19ºC
YesNo
1.25–1.29ºC
YesNo
1.20–1.24ºC
YesNo
<1.10ºC
YesNo
>1.29ºC
YesNo
1.10–1.14ºC
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.16 21:42 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Although Copernicus reported February 2026 as the 'fifth warmest on record' (implying a GISTEMP anomaly roughly between 1.15ºC-1.24ºC) and record March heat is reported in the US West, expert models (e.g., parhizj on Manifold) forecast the March global anomaly to settle in the 1.18ºC-1.20ºC range. This suggests global temperatures may moderate slightly or plateau rather than spiking further. The market has correctly discounted the low end (<1.14ºC), concentrating value in the 1.15-1.19ºC (upper bound) and 1.20-1.24ºC (lower bound) buckets. Given the uncertainty of the La Niña-to-Neutral transition, we slightly favor 1.15-1.19ºC but view 1.20-1.24ºC as equally competitive.
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Movers
March 13, 2026 - March 16, 2026, the price of the 1.25–1.29ºC option rallied from 15.4c to 21c before retracing to 16c. The reason was the release of Copernicus' February data (5th warmest globally), which triggered a brief surge in hedging for continued heat, subsequently dampened by more moderate model forecasts.
March 10, 2026 - March 16, 2026, the price of the 1.10–1.14ºC option crashed continuously from 25c to 12c. The reason was the release of February actuals and early March observations (e.g., US West heatwave), causing the market to completely capitulate on the 'strong La Niña cooling' thesis and rotate capital into higher temperature brackets.
