All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
4.2%
YesNo
4.4%
YesNo
4.0%
YesNo
≥4.7%
YesNo
4.3%
YesNo
4.5%
YesNo
4.6%
YesNo
≤3.9%
YesNo
4.1%
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.14 08:34 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The market has undergone significant repricing in recent days, shifting the probability mass from the tails (4.2% and 4.6%) toward the center (4.4%-4.5%). Given the January reading of 4.3% and the Fed/CBO structural forecasts of 4.4%-4.6%, the market's current consolidation around 4.4% and 4.5% (combined ~54%) represents a logical 'mean reversion'. The collapse of the 4.2% option (from 16.5c to 1.5c) signals a complete capitulation of the thesis that the labor market will tighten further, shifting bets toward a moderate cooling. Thus, fair value is heavily weighted between 4.4% and 4.5%.
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Hedging
US 10Y Yield
DXY
S&P 500
The US unemployment rate is a critical input for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. A significant deviation in the March unemployment rate from expectations (e.g., a sharp rise triggering recession fears, or an unexpected drop reinforcing sticky inflation) would directly impact interest rate cut expectations, causing volatility in US Treasury yields (US 10Y Yield) and the Dollar Index (DXY), which in turn drives repricing in risk assets like the S&P 500. Such macro data releases are typically significant tradable events.
Movers
March 11, 2026 - March 14, 2026, the price of 4.6% crashed from 31.75c to 12.95c, and 4.2% collapsed from 12.5c to 1.45c, while 4.4% surged from 16.5c to 27c. The reason is a violent market correction of previous uncertainties, eliminating bets on extreme outcomes—both a 'unemployment spike' (4.6%) and a 'tightening reversal' (4.2%)—with consensus rapidly converging on the Fed-aligned 4.4%-4.5% range.
February 6, 2026 - February 9, 2026, lower unemployment options (4.1%-4.2%) saw increased bidding following strong Jan data, but this trend has now been completely reversed.
