All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Steve Hershey
YesNo
Larry Hogan
YesNo
Kurt Wedekind
YesNo
Dan Cox
YesNo
Carl Brunner
YesNo
Ed Hale
YesNo
John Myrick
YesNo
Christopher Bouchat
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.03 19:32 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The market has corrected significantly from its previous irrational state (236% sum) to a rational level, with the sum of all 'Yes' prices now at ~95.5%. This suggests a slight undervaluation of the field or priced-in risk for an 'Other' candidate. Dan Cox has established dominance in the last three days (rising from 36.5c to 50c), reflecting strong consensus on his frontrunner status. Steve Hershey has collapsed to 2c, effectively being written off by the market. Larry Hogan remains negligible (<2c), consistent with his non-candidacy. Fair values are adjusted based on normalization, with Cox commanding a premium as the clear favorite.
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Movers
February 28, 2026 - March 3, 2026, Dan Cox's price surged from 36.5c to 50c. The reason is the consolidation of conservative support and capital towards Cox, the most recognizable name, following the collapse of rival Steve Hershey (who fell to 2c), establishing Cox as the absolute frontrunner.
February 9, 2026 - February 10, 2026, Christopher Bouchat's price surged from 37.5c to 51.5c due to likely speculative betting on internal polls or grassroots momentum.
February 9, 2026 - February 10, 2026, Steve Hershey's price dropped from 50c to 43c as the establishment favorite failed to meet early dominance expectations.
