All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
14.4-14.6m sq km
YesNo
14.2-14.4m sq km
YesNo
<14m sq km
YesNo
14.8-15m sq km
YesNo
14-14.2m sq km
YesNo
15m+ sq km
YesNo
14.6-14.8m sq km
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.15 20:23 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
According to recent NSIDC data, the Arctic sea ice extent reached 14.22 million sq km on March 10, 2026. Since mid-March is typically when the annual maximum occurs and recent trends show signs of melting, 14.22m is likely the locked-in annual maximum or very close to it. This makes the '14.2-14.4m' bracket (which contains 14.22) the overwhelming favorite, barring an unprecedented late freeze (pushing >14.4m) or a massive downward data revision (dropping <14.2m). The market is significantly mispricing '<14m' and '14-14.2m' by ignoring the hard data point of 14.22m. Similarly, high-end options (>14.6m) are effectively obsolete.
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Movers
2026-03-12 - 2026-03-15, the price of '14.6-14.8m sq km' surged from 1.3c to 16.4c, likely due to an irrational market correction after reacting to the 14.22m data point, or speculative capital betting on a low-probability late cold snap, despite fundamentals not supporting this rebound.
2026-03-10 - 2026-03-12, the price of '14.2-14.4m sq km' dropped from 65.5c to 42c, as the market digested new data. Although this bracket contains the current peak of 14.22m, traders may have feared that slight ice growth could push the extent into the 14.4-14.6 bracket, shaking confidence in the position.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. The actual NSIDC data (14.22m) has effectively eliminated the possibility of '<14m' and '14-14.2m' (barring massive data retractions), yet the market still assigns a combined ~18% probability to these options. This is typical 'zombie pricing,' where market participants fail to update prices based on already locked-in hard data.
