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Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
1550
YesNo
1600
YesNo
1700
YesNo
1650
YesNo
1400
YesNo
1450
YesNo
1500
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.16 17:23 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
As of March 16, the latest CDC confirmed case count is 1,362 (data through March 12). Critical data shows the national growth rate has decelerated significantly, dropping to +81 cases/week from the previous +145 and +154, primarily due to slowing transmission in South Carolina (the largest outbreak source). With only two weekly CDC reports remaining before the March 31 resolution (expected Mar 20 & Mar 27), projecting the current rate (+81/week) places the final count around 1,522 (1362 + 162). Triggering 'Yes' for 1550 would require an immediate reversal to >94 cases/week, and 1600 would require >119 cases/week, which contradicts the current trend. While Utah cases are rising, they are unlikely to fully offset the SC slowdown in such a short window. The most probable landing zone is 1520-1530, making options 1550 and higher significantly overvalued.
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Movers
March 10, 2026 - March 16, 2026: The price of the '1600' option crashed from 66.5c to 35c, and '1550' dropped from 82.5c to 70.5c. This correction was driven by the March 13 CDC weekly report showing only 81 new cases, a sharp decline from the ~150 cases/week seen in the prior fortnight. This confirmed that the outbreak pace is slowing (particularly in South Carolina), dispelling market fears of continued exponential growth.
March 5, 2026 - March 8, 2026: Higher strike options had previously surged due to the prior report showing +145 cases, but that momentum has failed to sustain.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. The market prices '1550' (Yes) at 70.5c, implying a 70% probability, whereas linear extrapolation based on the latest CDC data supports a probability of only ~30% (Fair Value ~35c). The market appears to be anchoring on late-February panic or aggressively betting that new outbreaks (like Utah) will cause an explosive surge in the final two weeks, which contradicts the broader 'slowing' trend in the official data.
