All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Brian Jaye
YesNo
Tripp Adams
YesNo
Tim Greimel
YesNo
Eric Chung
YesNo
Christina Hines
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.16 14:42 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The MI-10 Democratic primary has consolidated into a two-way race between Eric Chung and Tim Greimel. Greimel's significant price correction (from ~10c to ~40c) aligns with his strong fundamentals as Mayor of Pontiac and former legislative leader (labor support, geographic base). Eric Chung retains a slight edge due to his massive fundraising lead (>$870k) and Victory Fund endorsement. Brian Jaye is significantly overvalued at 19c given his negligible fundraising (~$500); his true fair value is near zero. Tripp Adams has suspended his campaign (value 0). Christina Hines remains a viable underdog with ~16% equity.
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Movers
March 15, 2026 - March 16, 2026, Tim Greimel's price surged from 10c to 39.5c. Reason: A massive market correction aligning his price with his strong fundamentals as a top-tier contender (Mayor of Pontiac), ending a period of significant undervaluation.
March 13, 2026 - March 15, 2026, Eric Chung's price rose from 34.5c to 47.5c before settling at 43.5c. Reason: Consolidation of his status as the fundraising frontrunner.
March 12, 2026 - March 16, 2026, Brian Jaye's price faded from a speculative high of 31.5c to 19c. Reason: Speculative interest waned as his lack of campaign funds weighed on the price.
Divergence
Significant market inefficiency exists. Brian Jaye (19c) and Tripp Adams (5c) are trading far above their realistic probabilities (Jaye lacks funds, Adams suspended), where fair value should be near 0. This overvaluation of long-tail candidates has pushed the total implied probability to ~124%, creating a major divergence from the reality that there can be only one winner.
