The rules state the market resolves to 'Other' if no primary occurs, yet 'Other' is not present in the provided options list. This creates a structural risk: if an unlisted candidate wins, or if the primary is cancelled, the resolution mechanism for traders holding listed options is ambiguous (often resulting in all listed options resolving to NO). While Pete Buttigieg has declined to run, the absence of an 'Other' option leaves the market vulnerable to late entrants or unexpected outcomes.

Apr 29, 2026 - May 2, 2026: Mallory McMorrow's price plunged from 43.5c to 28.5c, as her campaign's momentum recently slowed and some moderate voters defected to other candidates. Apr 19, 2026 - Apr 25, 2026: Abdul El-Sayed's price continued its steady climb to 48c, while Mallory McMorrow further retreated to 40c. The two have swapped frontrunner status, showing continuous consolidation of the progressive base and market confirmation of the race's reversal. Apr 11, 2026 - Apr 17, 2026: Abdul El-Sayed's price climbed from 29.5c to 40c, while Mallory McMorrow dropped from 60c to 48c, indicating a significant increase in market expectations for the progressive candidate's competitiveness and a tightening race. Apr 4, 2026 - Apr 10, 2026: The market remained largely stable with no sudden >10c moves. Mallory McMorrow fluctuated between 52c and 55.5c, while Abdul El-Sayed stabilized around 31.5c, indicating that the top-three dynamic has reached a temporary pricing equilibrium. Mar 28, 2026 - Apr 3, 2026: The market dynamics gradually shifted toward a two-way race. Mallory McMorrow's price smoothly declined to 53.5c, while Abdul El-Sayed stabilized around 31c, with no sudden moves exceeding 10c in recent days. Mar 21, 2026 - Mar 27, 2026: The market entered a consolidation phase. Mallory McMorrow fluctuated slightly in the 61c-66c range, and Abdul El-Sayed slowly gained ~4c, with no options experiencing a >10c sudden move. Mar 16, 2026 - Mar 21, 2026: Haley Stevens exhibited a 'flash in the pan' movement, spiking to 25c before bleeding back down to 20.5c over five days, indicating a lack of market confidence in her counter-offensive. Mar 11, 2026 - Mar 14, 2026: Mallory McMorrow's price experienced extreme volatility, crashing from 66c to 49c before rebounding to 55.5c. Simultaneously, Abdul El-Sayed surged from 12c to 21c, suggesting capital is repricing the viability of the third-place contender. Feb 28, 2026 - Mar 6, 2026: Mallory McMorrow's price climbed steadily from 55.5c to around 65c, while Haley Stevens dropped from 23c to 18c, reflecting the market's self-reinforcing 'frontrunner' narrative during an information vacuum.