All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Mallory McMorrow
YesNo
Haley Stevens
YesNo
Abdul El-Sayed
YesNo
Andy Levin
YesNo
Rashida Tlaib
YesNo
Dana Nessel
YesNo
Sarah Anthony
YesNo
Kristen McDonald Rivet
YesNo
Matt Sahr
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.14 13:58 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Although Mallory McMorrow has experienced a sharp correction (dropping from 66c to 49c before rebounding to 55c), her current pricing of 55.5c remains too high for what is effectively a three-way race. Previous RealClearPolling showed a statistical tie with Haley Stevens (~23%), and the surge in Abdul El-Sayed's price (from 12c to 21c) suggests the progressive vote is consolidating, which will further dilute McMorrow's potential share. Given Stevens' fundraising advantage and moderate base in Oakland County, her current 21.5c represents undervalued territory. The fair value model suggests a distribution closer to 45-30-20 rather than a McMorrow coronation.
Sign up to view more information
Rule Risk
The rules state the market resolves to 'Other' if no primary occurs, yet 'Other' is not present in the provided options list. This creates a structural risk: if an unlisted candidate wins, or if the primary is cancelled, the resolution mechanism for traders holding listed options is ambiguous (often resulting in all listed options resolving to NO). While Pete Buttigieg has declined to run, the absence of an 'Other' option leaves the market vulnerable to late entrants or unexpected outcomes.
Movers
Mar 11, 2026 - Mar 14, 2026: Mallory McMorrow's price experienced extreme volatility, crashing from 66c to 49c before rebounding to 55.5c. This fluctuation of over 15c indicates a market correction of the previous 'inevitability' narrative. Simultaneously, Abdul El-Sayed surged from 12c to 21c, suggesting capital is repricing the viability of the third-place contender.
Feb 28, 2026 - Mar 6, 2026: Mallory McMorrow's price climbed steadily from 55.5c to around 65c, while Haley Stevens dropped from 23c to 18c. This divergence of nearly 10c occurred without major breaking news, reflecting the market's self-reinforcing 'frontrunner' narrative during an information vacuum.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. The prediction market assigns Mallory McMorrow a >55% win probability, whereas recent public polling (e.g., RealClearPolling averages) shows a statistical tie between her and Haley Stevens (approx. 23% vs 23%) with a large portion of undecided voters. The market price does not yet fully reflect the risk of vote splitting caused by Abdul El-Sayed's surge, maintaining a high 'frontrunner premium'.
