All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
June 30, 2026
YesNo
December 31, 2026
YesNo
March 31, 2026
YesNo
AI Insights:
17 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Current date is March 18, 2026. For the 'March 31' option, with only 13 days remaining, the probability of Johnson resigning is negligible absent a sudden health crisis or scandal; fair value approaches zero. For the 'December 31' option, the market price (31c) retains a premium. Although 2026 is a midterm election year, Congressional convention dictates that even if the Speaker's party loses, the transition of power occurs on January 3rd of the following year, not before December 31st. Thus, this option effectively bets on an 'early' resignation or removal, not a standard end-of-term transition. Given the current lack of an imminent Motion to Vacate threat and the tendency for Speakers to serve out the lame-duck session, a 25% probability is a more rational fair value.
Sign up to view more information
Rule Risk
Significant rule conflict risk exists. The title and options imply a deadline in 2026, while the rule text explicitly specifies a period 'between April 9, and December 31, 2025'. This discrepancy between the rules (2025) and the options/title (2026) creates a high potential for dispute resolution issues, requiring clarification on whether the text or the options take precedence.
Divergence
The market pricing (31%) is significantly higher than the consensus among political observers. The mainstream view is that Johnson will serve out his term until Jan 2027 unless extreme GOP infighting reoccurs. The prediction market is likely overfitting to the historical precedent of McCarthy's removal, leading to an overestimation of 'early exit' risk.
