All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
March 31
YesNo
March 29
YesNo
March 30
YesNo
March 24
YesNo
March 28
YesNo
March 23
YesNo
March 21
YesNo
March 22
YesNo
March 26
YesNo
March 27
YesNo
March 20
YesNo
March 19
YesNo
March 25
YesNo
March 18
YesNo
March 17
YesNo
March 16
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.13 22:37 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Current time is March 13, 2026. 'Ends by' prediction markets function on cumulative probability; the probability of 'at least one day without strikes' occurring by a later date must be monotonically increasing. Most options are stagnant at 0.5, indicating illiquidity and pricing inefficiency, except for March 11 (0.255) and March 31 (0.495). The low price for March 11 suggests strikes likely occurred (leaning towards 'No'). Over time, diplomatic pressure and tactical pauses increase the likelihood of a 'Yes' resolution. Therefore, fair value for later dates (e.g., March 31) should be significantly higher than near-term dates and logically above 0.5 due to cumulative time value.
Sign up to view more information
Rule Risk
Significant rule traps exist. 1. Definition Divergence: While titled 'Action ends', the rules define this merely as a single full calendar day without strikes, representing a pause rather than a true end to conflict. 2. Interception Clause: 'Intercepted missiles' are explicitly excluded. A massive barrage that is fully intercepted would result in the market resolving as 'No strike' (resolving 'Yes'), completely contradicting the reality of active warfare.
Hedging
Crude Oil
LMT
Gold
S&P 500
This event is directly linked to crude supply risks in the Strait of Hormuz. If the market resolves 'Yes' (attacks pause), the removal of the war premium would likely cause Crude Oil to sell off and equities (S&P 500) to rally as risk aversion fades. Conversely, continued military action supports high Oil and Gold prices while weighing on risk assets. Defense stocks like LMT will also track conflict intensity.
Movers
March 11, 2026 - March 13, 2026: The price of the 'March 11' option dropped from ~0.50c to 0.255c, as the date passed and the likelihood of confirmed strikes increased, diminishing the chance of the action 'ending by' that date.
March 12, 2026 - March 13, 2026: The 'March 31' option price adjusted slightly to 0.495c, indicating early signs of active discovery in longer-dated contracts.
Divergence
The primary divergence is internal logic irrationality. The market pricing implies that the probability of ending by March 31 (49.5%) is lower than ending by March 20 (50%), which violates basic probability logic (subset inclusion). Additionally, given the ongoing military action (started Feb 28), the 50% pricing for later dates likely undervalues the probability of a single-day 'pause' (defined as Yes) occurring within the next two weeks.
