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Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Military action continues through March 31
YesNo
March 24
YesNo
March 23
YesNo
March 26
YesNo
March 25
YesNo
March 31
YesNo
March 30
YesNo
March 19
YesNo
March 18
YesNo
March 20
YesNo
March 22
YesNo
March 21
YesNo
March 27
YesNo
March 28
YesNo
March 29
YesNo
AI Insights:
9 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The current market price of 89c for 'Action through March 31' implies a daily strike probability of nearly 99% for the next 12 days (0.99^12 ≈ 0.88). While the current military posture shows high-intensity continuity and has successfully cleared March 16-17, the pricing almost entirely prices out the risk of weather disruptions, intelligence assessment (BDA) delays, or logistical pauses. Maintaining 'zero interruption' perfection over a two-week window is operationally challenging. Therefore, while the trend is positive, 89c slightly overestimates system stability. We adjust Fair Value up to 82c (from 78c) to reflect the passage of time and operational inertia, while still maintaining a discount for the risk of sporadic pauses.
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Rule Risk
There is a significant semantic trap between the title and the rules. The title suggests the end of 'Military action', but the rules strictly limit the criteria to the cessation of 'air or missile strikes', explicitly excluding ground incursions, naval shelling, and cyberattacks. This means if a ground war ensues or artillery is used while air strikes cease, the market could resolve as 'action ended', contradicting the intuitive understanding of 'military action'. Additionally, the 'Iran Standard Time' cutoffs and the reliance on 'consensus of credible reporting' during the fog of war create resolution risks.
Hedging
Crude Oil
RTX
LMT
Gold
S&P 500
This event has high macro hedging value. Iran is a core risk point for the global oil market; any military strike on (or cessation of strikes against) Iranian soil directly triggers panic or relief regarding supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, making Crude Oil highly sensitive (Score 4). If the conflict ends, reduced risk aversion would be bearish for Gold and bullish for equities; conversely, if action continues through the month, it supports defense contractor stocks (e.g., RTX, LMT).
Divergence
Market pricing (89%) implies an expectation of 'perfect execution,' meaning 12 consecutive days of uninterrupted strikes. However, conventional military analysis and historical precedent suggest that even in high-intensity conflicts, weather (e.g., sandstorms or low cloud cover) or intelligence assessment cycles typically cause intermittent slowing of operational tempo. The market is currently pricing too linearly, ignoring non-political operational friction.
