Apr 27, 2026 - Apr 30, 2026, the price of '4.8-5m sq km' spiked from 2.2c to 26.65c, and '4.0-4.2m sq km' rose from 5.65c to 16.3c. The reason is likely an anomalous weather forecast model or a sudden liquidity shock that drastically magnified premiums in non-core ranges. Mar 28, 2026 - Mar 30, 2026, the price of '<4m sq km' hovered around 38c, while '4.6-4.8m sq km' dropped from 18.5c to 10.5c, and '4.4-4.6m sq km' rose from 20.55c to 23.4c. This indicates minor adjustments in predictions for the central range, though high bets on extreme melting persist. Mar 12, 2026 - Mar 15, 2026, the price of '<4m sq km' rebounded sharply from 25c to 39c, while '5m+ sq km' experienced a rollercoaster ride (dropping from 21c to 7c, then back to 18c). This indicates the market is oscillating wildly between two extreme tail risks in the absence of definitive data, with liquidity games dominating pricing. Feb 24, 2026 - Feb 25, 2026, the price of '<4m sq km' plummeted from 60.5c to 43.5c, while intermediate intervals (4.2-4.6m) saw a collective surge. The reason was a severe mean-reversion correction, fixing the previous irrational over-betting on the extreme melt scenario.

The prediction market is currently highly irrational (sum of Yes prices far exceeds 100%) and overprices extreme outliers on both ends (<4m and 4.8-5m). This sharply contradicts mainstream scientific consensus from climatologists and the NSIDC, which leans heavily towards a stabilization within the historical trend line of 4.2m-4.6m. This divergence is primarily driven by poor platform liquidity and speculative capital over-hedging extreme tail events.