All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
5m+ sq km
YesNo
4.4-4.6m sq km
YesNo
4.0-4.2m sq km
YesNo
<4m sq km
YesNo
4.8-5m sq km
YesNo
4.6-4.8m sq km
YesNo
4.2-4.4m sq km
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.15 20:24 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The current market is extremely distorted, exhibiting an irrational 'fat-tailed' distribution. First, the pricing of '~18c' for '5m+ sq km' completely defies climate science; the minimum Arctic sea ice extent has not exceeded 5 million sq km in over a decade, and long-term trends make it virtually impossible in the current climate. Second, while '<4m sq km' has precedents (2012, 2020), a price of 39c implies a nearly 40% probability, overvaluing what is statistically an extreme event. Fair value should reflect a normal distribution concentrated in the 4.0m-4.6m intermediate range, consistent with the recent climatological average and the 2025 rebound to 4.6m.
Sign up to view more information
Movers
From Mar 12, 2026 to Mar 15, 2026, the price of '<4m sq km' rebounded sharply from 25c to 39c, while '5m+ sq km' experienced a rollercoaster ride (dropping from 21c to 7c, then back to 18c). This indicates the market is oscillating wildly between two extreme tail risks (extreme melt vs. extreme freeze) in the absence of definitive data, with liquidity games dominating pricing rather than fundamentals.
From Feb 24, 2026 to Feb 25, 2026, the price of '<4m sq km' plummeted from 60.5c to 43.5c, while intermediate intervals (4.2-4.6m) saw a collective surge. The reason was a severe mean-reversion correction, fixing the previous irrational over-betting on the extreme melt scenario.
Divergence
There is a severe divergence between market pricing and scientific consensus. Mainstream climate models and NSIDC data show a long-term declining trend for Arctic sea ice, making a minimum of '5m+ sq km' virtually impossible in the current climate context, yet the market assigns it an ~18% probability. Simultaneously, the market is over-hedging both tails (sum of <4m and >5m is nearly 60%), ignoring the most probable intermediate state (4.0-4.6m), reflecting excessive speculation on tail risks by prediction market participants amidst low liquidity.
