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YesNo
AI Insights:
12 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
With only 13 days remaining until the March 31 deadline, the probability of charges is effectively zero. Key reasons include: 1. **Oregon Precedent Blocks State Prosecution**: On March 13, the Oregon DOJ decided not to appeal the Landis case (DEA agent killing) to the Supreme Court, solidifying the 'Supremacy Clause' immunity defense. This recent decision severely undermines any legal basis for Hennepin County Attorney Moriarty to file charges. 2. **Federal Obstruction & Time Decay**: The March 3 deadline set by Moriarty for evidence turnover passed with continued refusal from federal agencies (FBI/DHS). Without evidence (agent names, ballistics) and with the DOJ assigning employment lawyers rather than civil rights prosecutors to the probe, it is procedurally impossible to file ethical charges within two weeks. 3. **Political Stance**: The administration has asserted 'absolute immunity,' and while charges against the victims were dropped, the DOJ is not pursuing the agents, ruling out federal indictment.
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Arbitrage|Low Risk
Arbitrage Plan:
Buy Option_'No'
Plan Description:
Option 'No' is trading around 97.5c-98c. Given that the legal path to prosecution has been effectively blocked by recent precedent (Oregon case) and procedural obstruction (evidence blockade), the probability of a reversal in the remaining 13 days is negligible. This represents a classic 'picking up pennies' low-risk, high-probability trade with a significant annualized yield.Sign up to view more information
Arbitrage: 2¢
|Annualized yield: 56.1%
Exotics
This is a specific social/legal event prediction. While it involves a controversial topic of law enforcement use of force and is a current event, it is not extremely bizarre or obscure. It is a typical 'headline news' type of prediction market.
