[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for the '2026 Minnesota Governor Republican Primary' to analyze the order book depth and current odds for candidates (e.g., Mike Lindell, Scott Jensen), and assess user discussions to identify potential pricing biases caused by low liquidity.

AI-powered analysis for: [Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for the '2026 Minnesota Governor Republican Primary' to analyze the order book depth and current odds for candidates (e.g., Mike Lindell, Scott Jensen), and assess user discussions to identify potential pricing biases caused by low liquidity.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Core News Sourcing] Candidate Intent Verification: Search local Minnesota news and Twitter to confirm if top contenders like Mike Lindell, Scott Jensen, or Kendall Qualls have officially announced their candidacy for the 2026 Governor race, filtering out mispricing based solely on rumors or past fame.

AI-powered analysis for: [Core News Sourcing] Candidate Intent Verification: Search local Minnesota news and Twitter to confirm if top contenders like Mike Lindell, Scott Jensen, or Kendall Qualls have officially announced their candidacy for the 2026 Governor race, filtering out mispricing based solely on rumors or past fame.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Key Players Mining] Party Endorsements & Funding: Investigate the current leanings of key power brokers and major donors within the Minnesota Republican Party (MNGOP) to analyze which candidate is most likely to secure core party endorsements and resources for the primary advantage.

AI-powered analysis for: [Key Players Mining] Party Endorsements & Funding: Investigate the current leanings of key power brokers and major donors within the Minnesota Republican Party (MNGOP) to analyze which candidate is most likely to secure core party endorsements and resources for the primary advantage.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Politics|$138.9k Vol|

145 days 6 hrs

Minnesota Governor Republican Primary Winner - AI Odds Analysis

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

Lisa Demuth

YesNo

57.5¢

42.5¢

60¢

40¢

+2.5¢

0¢

Kendall Qualls

YesNo

29¢

71¢

27¢

73¢

0¢

+2¢

Chris Madel

YesNo

2.55¢

97.45¢

1¢

99¢

0¢

+1.5¢

Jeff Johnson

YesNo

1.15¢

98.85¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+1.1¢

Scott Jensen

YesNo

0.65¢

99.35¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+0.6¢

Mike Lindell

YesNo

12.5¢

87.5¢

12¢

88¢

0¢

+0.5¢

Phil Parrish

YesNo

0.35¢

99.65¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+0.3¢

Patrick Knight

YesNo

0.35¢

99.65¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+0.3¢

Brad Kohler

YesNo

0.25¢

99.75¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+0.2¢

Kristin Robbins

YesNo

0.2¢

99.8¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+0.2¢

AI Insights:

03.15 06:21 Updated

Fair Value Reasoning:

Lisa Demuth (current 56.5c), as House Speaker, won the Feb 3 caucus straw poll with 32% and has consolidated establishment support, making her the clear frontrunner with a fair value of 60c. Kendall Qualls (26.5c) placed a strong second with 25% in the straw poll and remains the only viable alternative, justifying a fair value of 27c. Mike Lindell (12c) has a base support (17% in straw poll) but a low ceiling due to financial struggles and electability concerns; his price fairly reflects his hardcore base. Crucially, Jeff Johnson suspended his campaign on Feb 10 due to a family tragedy, and Scott Jensen dropped out on Feb 9 to run for State Auditor; both have a fair value of 0.

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Arbitrage|Direct Arb

Arbitrage Plan:

Buy 'No' on Jeff Johnson (and 'No' on Scott Jensen)

Plan Description:

A clear risk-free yield opportunity exists. While a direct arbitrage (buying all 'Yes' options) yields a meager 0.45c profit, the superior strategy is betting against dropped-out candidates. Jeff Johnson officially suspended his campaign on Feb 10 due to family reasons, and Scott Jensen pivoted to the Auditor race on Feb 9. With Jeff Johnson's 'Yes' price still at 1.35c, buying 'No' (cost ~98.65c) is a virtually risk-free trade yielding ~3.3% annualized.

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Arbitrage: 1¢

|

Annualized yield: 3.3%

Minnesota Governor Republican Primary Winner - AI Odds Analysis

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