[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Assessment: Access the Polymarket page for "Minnesota Republican Senate Primary Winner," analyze the bid-ask spread and depth for frontrunners like Royce White and Julia Coleman, and update the fair value assessment based on the latest campaign statuses (e.g., dropouts).

AI-powered analysis for: [Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Assessment: Access the Polymarket page for "Minnesota Republican Senate Primary Winner," analyze the bid-ask spread and depth for frontrunners like Royce White and Julia Coleman, and update the fair value assessment based on the latest campaign statuses (e.g., dropouts).. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Politics] Authoritative Polls vs. Odds Analysis: Search for the latest polling data from Star Tribune, KSTP, or FiveThirtyEight regarding the 2026 Minnesota Senate Republican Primary, and compare poll numbers with current Polymarket implied probabilities to identify significant valuation discrepancies.

AI-powered analysis for: [Politics] Authoritative Polls vs. Odds Analysis: Search for the latest polling data from Star Tribune, KSTP, or FiveThirtyEight regarding the 2026 Minnesota Senate Republican Primary, and compare poll numbers with current Polymarket implied probabilities to identify significant valuation discrepancies.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Analysis] Key Catalyst Prediction (Party Endorsements): Confirm the dates for the Minnesota GOP Endorsing Convention and the endorsement leanings of key figures like Donald Trump, and analyze the potential for these events to trigger drastic price volatility for candidates in the coming weeks.

AI-powered analysis for: [Analysis] Key Catalyst Prediction (Party Endorsements): Confirm the dates for the Minnesota GOP Endorsing Convention and the endorsement leanings of key figures like Donald Trump, and analyze the potential for these events to trigger drastic price volatility for candidates in the coming weeks.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Politics|$1,041 Vol|

145 days 2 hrs

Minnesota Republican Senate Primary Winner - AI Odds Analysis

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

Adam Schwarze

YesNo

11.65¢

88.35¢

17¢

83¢

+5.4¢

0¢

Michele Tafoya

YesNo

75¢

25¢

72¢

28¢

0¢

+3¢

Royce White

YesNo

3.45¢

96.55¢

6¢

94¢

+2.5¢

0¢

Christopher Brooks

YesNo

1.55¢

98.45¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+1.5¢

Raymond Petersen

YesNo

6.45¢

93.55¢

5¢

95¢

0¢

+1.4¢

Mike Ruoho

YesNo

1.45¢

98.55¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+1.4¢

Jim Nash

YesNo

1.4¢

98.6¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+1.4¢

David Hann

YesNo

1.15¢

98.85¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+1.1¢

Tom Weiler

YesNo

1¢

99¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+1¢

Julia Coleman

YesNo

1.05¢

98.95¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+1¢

Alycia Gruenhagen

YesNo

0.4¢

99.6¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+0.4¢

Kristin Robbins

YesNo

0.25¢

99.75¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+0.2¢

AI Insights:

03.11 11:28 Updated

Fair Value Reasoning:

The market is undergoing a significant repricing. Michele Tafoya's absolute dominance (previously >80c) has eroded, dropping to the low 70s, suggesting the primary is not a coronation. Adam Schwarze has emerged as the consolidated challenger, doubling in price (6c to ~17c) and absorbing the alternative vote. Raymond Petersen exhibited unnatural volatility (spiking to 20c before crashing), indicative of liquidity issues or manipulation rather than fundamentals, hence a lower fair value. Jim Nash remains near zero.

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Movers

2026-03-06 to 2026-03-11, Adam Schwarze surged from 6.7c to 16.95c (>10c gain), while Michele Tafoya dropped from 81c to 71c (10c loss). This marks a structural shift in the race, with Schwarze consolidating challenger support and eroding Tafoya's inevitability. Raymond Petersen also saw a speculative spike to 20c before crashing. 2026-02-26 to 2026-02-28, Jim Nash's price collapsed from 13.6c to 3.0c, a drop of over 10c. This precipitous decline strongly suggests the candidate has suspended their campaign, causing market repricing. 2026-02-09 to 2026-02-10, Michele Tafoya's price rose from 56.5c to 63c, solidifying her lead as the establishment favorite.

Minnesota Republican Senate Primary Winner - AI Odds Analysis

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