All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Eric Pratt
YesNo
Tyler Kistner
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.13 03:48 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The MN-02 GOP primary market has stabilized following the February caucus volatility, entering a phase of trench warfare. While Kistner showed grassroots strength in the caucuses and holds a structural advantage for the party endorsement, Pratt's current price of 52.5c reflects the market's weight on establishment resources and electability. Given Kistner's history of general election losses, the well-funded Pratt is viewed as the safer bet. The combined pricing (~98c) suggests high market confidence that the nominee will be one of these two, leaving minimal room for 'Other' candidates.
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Rule Risk
The primary risk lies in the 'Other' outcome. While the options only list Eric Pratt and Tyler Kistner, the rules explicitly state the market can resolve to 'Other'. With the primary six months away (current context Feb 2026, primary Aug 2026), there is a risk of a late entrant (e.g., 2024 nominee Joe Teirab) winning. If a third candidate wins, holders of both Pratt and Kistner shares would lose. Additionally, the fallback to 'Other' if no nominee is announced adds a minor tail risk.
