[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Assessment: Combine the latest Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index (PVI) for Minnesota's 5th District with an analysis of the Polymarket order book depth and spread (given the low ~$9k volume). Assess the slippage risk for large entries on the 'Democratic Party' and determine if the current odds fully price in the fundamental reality of this district being a 'safe blue' seat.

AI-powered analysis for: [Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Assessment: Combine the latest Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index (PVI) for Minnesota's 5th District with an analysis of the Polymarket order book depth and spread (given the low ~$9k volume). Assess the slippage risk for large entries on the 'Democratic Party' and determine if the current odds fully price in the fundamental reality of this district being a 'safe blue' seat.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Category 1] Historical Frequency Statistics: Search for MN-05 congressional election results over the past decade to calculate the average margin of victory for Democratic candidates (e.g., Ilhan Omar). Use this data to statistically verify if a Republican flip is a 'Black Swan' event, and determine if the market is overpricing the Republican odds (i.e., is there any lottery value in the underdog option).

AI-powered analysis for: [Category 1] Historical Frequency Statistics: Search for MN-05 congressional election results over the past decade to calculate the average margin of victory for Democratic candidates (e.g., Ilhan Omar). Use this data to statistically verify if a Republican flip is a 'Black Swan' event, and determine if the market is overpricing the Republican odds (i.e., is there any lottery value in the underdog option).. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Category 3] Opportunity Cost of Capital: Given the settlement date of November 4, 2026 (approx. 8 months away), calculate the Annualized Percentage Yield (APY) of buying the 'Democratic Party' outcome at current prices. Compare this ROI against the ~4-5% risk-free rate (e.g., T-bills or DeFi stablecoin yields) to determine if locking up capital until the midterms is economically rational compared to safe passive income.

AI-powered analysis for: [Category 3] Opportunity Cost of Capital: Given the settlement date of November 4, 2026 (approx. 8 months away), calculate the Annualized Percentage Yield (APY) of buying the 'Democratic Party' outcome at current prices. Compare this ROI against the ~4-5% risk-free rate (e.g., T-bills or DeFi stablecoin yields) to determine if locking up capital until the midterms is economically rational compared to safe passive income.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Politics|$4,068 Vol|

228 days 14 hrs

MN-05 House Election Winner - AI Odds Analysis

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

Democratic Party

YesNo

93.5¢

6.5¢

99¢

1¢

+5.5¢

0¢

Republican Party

YesNo

4.9¢

95.1¢

1¢

99¢

0¢

+3.9¢

AI Insights:

03.08 09:31 Updated

Fair Value Reasoning:

MN-05 (Minneapolis and suburbs) is one of the safest Democratic strongholds in the US, with a Cook P...

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MN-05 House Election Winner - AI Odds Analysis

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