All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Reilly Neill
YesNo
Alani Bankhead
YesNo
Michael Hummert
YesNo
Michael BlackWolf
YesNo
Kathleen McLaughlin
YesNo
AI Insights:
15 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Although Michael BlackWolf's price has recently corrected upwards (returning to ~20c), the market's valuation of Reilly Neill remains severely distorted. 81 cents (81% implied probability) is grossly overvalued for a former one-term state representative from a decade ago with weak recent campaign performance. The lack of heavyweights in the Montana Democratic Primary (with rumors of Jon Tester backing an Independent) makes candidates like 'Air Force Lt. Col.' Alani Bankhead (currently only 4c) and Indigenous representative BlackWolf highly attractive asymmetric plays. Michael Hummert, a perennial candidate, lacks the fundamentals to justify a 10c price.
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Rule Risk
High rule risk. Public records indicate other declared candidates exist (e.g., Alani Bankhead, Michael Black Wolf) who are not listed in the provided options. The rules text only specifies a resolution to 'Other' if *no* primary takes place, failing to explicitly address the scenario where a non-listed candidate wins. Without a clear 'Field/Other' option for the winner, the market faces significant dispute risk if neither Neill nor Hummert wins.
Movers
March 16, 2026 - March 17, 2026, Michael BlackWolf's price surged from 8.5c to 20.5c, as the market finally began to correct the undervaluation of the candidate with Indigenous community backing, injecting liquidity into non-frontrunner options.
February 24, 2026 - March 2, 2026, The market was frozen with Reilly Neill remaining elevated at 79.5c and other candidates showing almost no volatility, indicating a severe lack of information discovery at that time.
February 9, 2026 - February 10, 2026, Michael Hummert's price dropped from 17c to 11.5c as the market corrected expectations for the perennial candidate.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. The prediction market treats Reilly Neill as an overwhelming favorite (~80%), as if she were an establishment incumbent with strong endorsements. However, real-world political analysis and media reporting suggest the Montana Democratic Primary is a 'vacuum' lacking strong contenders, with former Senator Jon Tester even hinting at bypassing the primary to support an Independent. The market price reflects low liquidity and blind anchoring to a 'familiar name' rather than a genuine electoral advantage.
