All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Michael Porter Jr.
YesNo
Stephen Curry
YesNo
Payton Pritchard
YesNo
Donovan Mitchell
YesNo
Kon Knueppel
YesNo
Anthony Edwards
YesNo
Luka Doncic
YesNo
LaMelo Ball
YesNo
Zach LaVine
YesNo
CJ McCollum
YesNo
Trey Murphy III
YesNo
Jaren Jackson Jr.
YesNo
Lauri Markkanen
YesNo
Buddy Hield
YesNo
Klay Thompson
YesNo
Kevin Durant
YesNo
Austin Reaves
YesNo
Shaedon Sharpe
YesNo
Desmond Bane
YesNo
Darius Garland
YesNo
Kristaps Porzingis
YesNo
Derrick White
YesNo
Keyonte George
YesNo
Jalen Green
YesNo
Anfernee Simons
YesNo
Brandon Miller
YesNo
Tyrese Maxey
YesNo
Cam Thomas
YesNo
Duncan Robinson
YesNo
Jamal Murray
YesNo
Coby White
YesNo
LeBron James
YesNo
De'Andre Hunter
YesNo
Gary Trent Jr.
YesNo
James Harden
YesNo
AJ Green
YesNo
Trae Young
YesNo
Jaylen Brown
YesNo
Paul George
YesNo
Victor Wembanyama
YesNo
Jalen Brunson
YesNo
Devin Booker
YesNo
Sam Hauser
YesNo
Karl-Anthony Towns
YesNo
Jordan Poole
YesNo
Brice Sensabaugh
YesNo
Norman Powell
YesNo
Donte DiVincenzo
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.15 10:22 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Luka Doncic (61.5c) is significantly undervalued. Reasons: 1. **Statistical Dominance**: Official data (Basketball-Reference 2025-26) places Luka at 3.9 3PM/game, comfortably leading Kon Knueppel (3.54) and Anthony Edwards (3.5). 2. **Rule Safety Net**: Luka has played 54 games; he only needs 4 more to hit the 58-game qualifier. Crucially, even if he stops playing today, the NBA 'exception rule' (Total Makes / 58) gives him a floor of ~3.62 (210/58), which is *still* higher than Knueppel's current average of 3.54. 3. **Curry Threat Diminished**: Reports indicate the Warriors are prioritizing Stephen Curry's long-term health over a rushed return (Sources [2], [7]), citing a lack of incentive. Even if Curry returns, the math for him to overtake Luka via the exception rule in the remaining ~11 games is statistically improbable. The market's 19% implied probability for Curry ignores the high likelihood of him being shut down.
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Movers
March 14, 2026 - March 15, 2026, Luka Doncic's price surged from 48.75c to 61.5c. This is driven by his games played (54) nearing the qualifying threshold as the season winds down, combined with negative injury updates for Stephen Curry (Source [7]) suggesting a potential shutdown, removing the primary threat.
March 13, 2026 - March 15, 2026, Anthony Edwards' price dropped from 4.55c to 1.35c, as his recent output failed to close the significant gap in average (3.5 vs 3.9) against Luka.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. Mainstream sports media (Sources [7], [15]) report that the Warriors are prioritizing Curry's long-term health and may shut him down for the season, citing a lack of competitive incentive. However, the prediction market still assigns Curry a ~19% win probability (Yes Price 0.19). This implies the market is severely underpricing the risk of a full shutdown or overestimating his ability to statistically dominate in a meager ~10 game window upon return.
