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Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Boston Celtics
YesNo
New York Knicks
YesNo
Toronto Raptors
YesNo
Philadelphia 76ers
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.15 09:16 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The market currently exhibits significant pricing inefficiency, with the sum of all 'Yes' prices totaling only around 90 cents. This implies either a 10% probability that an unlisted team (like the Brooklyn Nets) wins, or simply a liquidity-driven mispricing. Given the context describes this strictly as a two-horse race between the Celtics and Knicks with less than 4 weeks remaining, the Celtics' recent price crash (from 73c to 56c) likely represents an overreaction to a short-term slump or a specific loss. Fair value suggests the Celtics should still command a 60% probability as defending champs, while the Knicks' upside is partially priced in. Buying the basket of contenders offers high expected value due to the sub-100c total cost.
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Arbitrage|Low Risk
Arbitrage Plan:
Buy a basket of 'Yes' options: Buy Boston Celtics (Yes) and New York Knicks (Yes) simultaneously.
Plan Description:
A significant 'negative premium' arbitrage opportunity exists. The combined cost to buy Celtics (0.559) and Knicks (0.335) is approximately 0.894. As long as either of these two teams wins the Atlantic Division, the payout is 1.00, resulting in a net profit of ~10.6 cents (approx 11.8% yield). The risk lies in the unlisted 'Brooklyn Nets' winning, but based on the 'two-horse race' context, this risk is minimal.Sign up to view more information
Arbitrage: 10¢
|Annualized yield: 150.5%
Movers
March 12, 2026 - March 15, 2026, Boston Celtics price plummeted from 71.75c to 55.85c, while New York Knicks rebounded from 28.5c to 33.5c. The reason is likely a Celtics losing streak or key injury as the regular season enters its final month, destabilizing their previously seemingly secure lead and causing the market to rapidly re-evaluate the race from a 'lock' back to a 'competitive heat'.
March 1, 2026 - March 7, 2026, New York Knicks price climbed steadily from 30c to 42.5c, while Boston Celtics dropped from 68.75c to 56.9c. The reason is a strong Knicks performance in early March (likely coupled with unexpected Celtics losses), which rapidly erased the standings gap that seemed insurmountable in late February, forcing the market to reprice the scenario from a 'Celtics lock' to a 'toss-up sprint'.
February 19, 2026 - February 25, 2026, Boston Celtics surged from 45.1c to 60.4c, while New York Knicks plunged from 52.5c to 38c. The reason was a drastic market reaction to a reshuffling of the standings, where the Celtics established a lead, ending the previous 'dead heat' narrative.
February 8, 2026 - February 10, 2026, New York Knicks surged from 42.5c to 55.5c, while Boston Celtics plummeted from 52.5c to 41.9c. This was driven by the Knicks' dominant road victory over the Celtics, erasing the standings gap and briefly shifting momentum.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. Mainstream sports analytics models typically lock the sum of probabilities for all outcomes to 100% late in the season, whereas the current prediction market's sum of all 'Yes' options is only ~90%. This indicates extreme pessimism or liquidity drainage, where participants may be overamplifying the risk of the Celtics' recent decline, driving prices below their mathematical expected value.
