All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Houston Rockets
YesNo
San Antonio Spurs
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.15 07:23 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Current date is March 15, 2026, with 4 weeks left in the season. Although the San Antonio Spurs' price dipped slightly from 98.4c to 96.3c, this is likely due to short-term variance caused by late-season load management or a single game loss, rather than a fundamental reversal. Given the previous stability in the 97c-98c range and the benefit of Time Decay for the leader, the probability of the Spurs clinching remains extremely high. The market's pricing of the Houston Rockets at 3.3c seems slightly inflated, likely an over-hedge against the Spurs' minor dip; fair value is closer to the previous 'dead money' range of 1c-2c.
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Arbitrage|Direct Arb
Arbitrage Plan:
Buy Yes San Antonio Spurs + Buy Yes Houston Rockets
Plan Description:
The sum of Yes prices for both teams is 96.3 + 3.3 = 99.6 cents. Assuming the Southwest Division winner must be one of these two (given their prices cover 100% of the market share, implying others are mathematically eliminated), this is a risk-free arbitrage opportunity. Buying this combination costs less than 100c, yielding a guaranteed profit of 0.4c at maturity.Sign up to view more information
Arbitrage: 0.4¢
|Annualized yield: 5.23%
Rule Risk
There is a massive rule conflict here. The title is 'NBA Southwest Division Winner' (Western Conference). However, the rule text explicitly states it resolves for the '2025–2026 NBA Eastern Conference Finals'. This is a severe copy-paste error, as Southwest Division teams cannot compete in the Eastern Conference Finals. This contradiction makes literal resolution impossible and creates a high risk of the market resolving as N/A or being disputed.
