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Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Oklahoma City Thunder
YesNo
San Antonio Spurs
YesNo
Los Angeles Lakers
YesNo
Denver Nuggets
YesNo
Minnesota Timberwolves
YesNo
Houston Rockets
YesNo
Phoenix Suns
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.15 12:02 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Despite the severe volatility on March 14 (OKC dropped ~20 cents), the rapid price recovery on March 15 (to 77.5c) indicates this was an overreactive panic sell-off, likely triggered by a single game loss or temporary injury rumor. The fundamentals have not fundamentally reversed; the Thunder (OKC) still control the destiny for the #1 seed. Given the resilience shown by the Spurs, fair value is set at OKC 80c (slightly above current market, reflecting value after the correction), with the Spurs at 19c as the only viable hedge.
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Arbitrage|Direct Arb
Arbitrage Plan:
Buy 'Yes' on all available teams
Plan Description:
The sum of 'Yes' prices for all options is approximately 96.25c (77.5+16.75+1.0+0.35+0.35+0.25+0.05). Since one team must inevitably finish as the #1 seed, buying 'Yes' on every team locks in a risk-free profit of roughly 3.75c (excluding slippage).Sign up to view more information
Arbitrage: 3¢
|Annualized yield: 49.3%
Movers
March 13, 2026 - March 15, 2026, Oklahoma City Thunder prices experienced a rollercoaster, plunging from 81.6c to 61.7c before quickly rebounding to 77.5c; meanwhile, San Antonio Spurs spiked from 17c to 31.5c before falling back to 16.75c. This was likely caused by a key Thunder loss or Spurs win on March 14 that briefly reignited fears about the #1 seed race, but subsequent results immediately corrected this market overreaction.
March 1, 2026 - March 5, 2026, Oklahoma City Thunder prices rebounded from 72.6c to 83.2c, while San Antonio Spurs fell from 29c to 16.5c. The market absorbed the panic regarding Thunder star injuries, and confidence was restored that OKC could maintain their lead (or the Spurs' streak ended).
