[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Combine the latest official NBA regular season standings (reverse standings) to compare the odds distribution of the top contenders for 'Worst Record' (e.g., Pistons, Wizards, Spurs) on Polymarket. Analyze the liquidity depth of the current Order Book and, combined with the Games Back (GB) gap, determine if the market is overreacting or lagging in pricing any specific team.

AI-powered analysis for: [Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Combine the latest official NBA regular season standings (reverse standings) to compare the odds distribution of the top contenders for 'Worst Record' (e.g., Pistons, Wizards, Spurs) on Polymarket. Analyze the liquidity depth of the current Order Book and, combined with the Games Back (GB) gap, determine if the market is overreacting or lagging in pricing any specific team.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Category 1: Awareness & Verification] [General/Newbie] Resolution Rules (ELI5): Regarding the clause 'If multiple teams finish with identical records, the league’s tiebreaker rules will be used', please explain in the simplest terms how the NBA's Tiebreaker rules function in the context of the 'Worst Record'. (Note: Distinguish between the Draft Lottery's split-odds rule and the Regular Season Standings' Head-to-Head rules—specifically, if two teams have the exact same record, which one is legally deemed 'worse' by the rules?)

AI-powered analysis for: [Category 1: Awareness & Verification] [General/Newbie] Resolution Rules (ELI5): Regarding the clause 'If multiple teams finish with identical records, the league’s tiebreaker rules will be used', please explain in the simplest terms how the NBA's Tiebreaker rules function in the context of the 'Worst Record'. (Note: Distinguish between the Draft Lottery's split-odds rule and the Regular Season Standings' Head-to-Head rules—specifically, if two teams have the exact same record, which one is legally deemed 'worse' by the rules?). Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Category 2: Analysis & Reasoning] [General] Potential Catalyst Prediction: Based on the Remaining Strength of Schedule (SOS) and 'tanking' strategies, analyze potential catalysts that could cause significant odds volatility within the next 48 hours to a week. Focus on: which bottom-tier team faces opponents with the highest winning percentage (making losses more likely), and have any key stars (e.g., Kuzma, Cunningham) been officially declared 'out for the season' or resting indefinitely due to minor injuries?

AI-powered analysis for: [Category 2: Analysis & Reasoning] [General] Potential Catalyst Prediction: Based on the Remaining Strength of Schedule (SOS) and 'tanking' strategies, analyze potential catalysts that could cause significant odds volatility within the next 48 hours to a week. Focus on: which bottom-tier team faces opponents with the highest winning percentage (making losses more likely), and have any key stars (e.g., Kuzma, Cunningham) been officially declared 'out for the season' or resting indefinitely due to minor injuries?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Sports|$312.2k Vol|

24 days 14 hrs

NBA Worst Record - AI Odds Analysis

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

Washington Wizards

YesNo

20.5¢

79.5¢

12¢

88¢

0¢

+8.5¢

Sacramento Kings

YesNo

17.6¢

82.4¢

26¢

74¢

+8.4¢

0¢

Utah Jazz

YesNo

5.05¢

94.95¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+5¢

Indiana Pacers

YesNo

44.35¢

55.65¢

40¢

60¢

0¢

+4.3¢

Memphis Grizzlies

YesNo

5.85¢

94.15¢

2¢

98¢

0¢

+3.8¢

Dallas Mavericks

YesNo

7.8¢

92.2¢

5¢

95¢

0¢

+2.8¢

Brooklyn Nets

YesNo

12.55¢

87.45¢

15¢

85¢

+2.4¢

0¢

New Orleans Pelicans

YesNo

2.15¢

97.85¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+2.1¢

Chicago Bulls

YesNo

0.7¢

99.3¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+0.7¢

Milwaukee Bucks

YesNo

0.15¢

99.85¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+0.1¢

AI Insights:

03.15 09:18 Updated

Fair Value Reasoning:

A dramatic 'change of guard' at the bottom of the standings has occurred in the last few days. The Indiana Pacers surged from 18c to over 43c, while the Sacramento Kings plummeted from 60c to 23c, strongly implying a pivotal shift in the NBA loss column—the Pacers likely overtook the Kings for the worst record, or the Kings won an unexpected game. The market pricing (summing to ~115c) is vigged, but with less than 4 weeks (approx. 12-14 games) remaining, the hierarchy is hardening. The Pacers are reasonably priced as the new favorite, but assigning >45% certainty to any single team remains risky given the volatility of 'tanking' strategies; the remaining schedules for the Kings and Nets will determine if they can 'catch up' (i.e., lose more games).

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Movers

Mar 14, 2026 - Mar 15, 2026, Sacramento Kings price dropped from 35.7c to 23.5c, a decline of over 12c. This indicates market confidence in the Kings finishing with the worst record is shaking further, likely due to the Pacers continuing to lose or changes in the Kings' strength of schedule. Mar 13, 2026 - Mar 14, 2026, Brooklyn Nets price experienced extreme volatility, crashing from 22.2c to 8.7c before rebounding to 14.9c on the 15th. This whipsaw action suggests massive disagreement regarding the Nets' commitment to 'tanking' in the final stretch. Mar 11, 2026 - Mar 12, 2026, A decisive market flip occurred: Indiana Pacers skyrocketed from 18.7c to 46.6c, establishing themselves as the new favorite, while Sacramento Kings plunged from 55.3c to 34.0c. This marked the official change of leadership in the race for the worst record.

NBA Worst Record - AI Odds Analysis

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